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WHERE SHOULD YOU HAVE PUT YOUR MONEY IN 2006?

A weekly newsletter based on the fact that stock market sectors are made up of industries, that industries are made up of individual stocks, and that individual stocks in the same industries and sectors move as a group. The proven best way to profit from the stock market is to keep your funds invested in the stocks of top performing sectors/industries at all times, and the best measurement of performance of these sectors/industries is their price movement over the previous six months. Below you will find commentary of Sectors, Industries, and Stocks based on the most recent 6-month period as well as updates on the past week’s action...

 

December 29, 2006
(This newsletter will go into hiatus as of the end of the year until further notice.)

 

 

It Was A Very Good Year

When I was seventeen

It was a very good year

It was a very good year for small town girls

And soft summer nights

We'd hide from the lights

On the village green

When I was seventeen


When I was twenty-one

It was a very good year

It was a very good year for city girls

Who lived up the stair

With all that perfumed hair

And it came undone

When I was twenty-one


When I was thirty-five

It was a very good year

It was a very good year for blue-blooded girls

Of independent means

We'd ride in limousines

Their chauffeurs would drive

When I was thirty-five


But now the days grow short

I'm in the autumn of the year

And now I think of my life as vintage wine

from fine old kegs

from the brim to the dregs

And it poured sweet and clear

It was a very good year  

                                                                                                           - Ervin Drake (1961)


Forty years ago (1966), Frank Sinatra won a Grammy for these reflections upon a life well lived. He probably would also have put his stamp of approval on 2006 as a market well traded, if he were with us now. Liquidity dripped from every corner of the global banking vaults. Commodities scaled dizzying heights through springtime, and all other sectors followed along for the ride. The May-July swoon took just about everything down with it, but support underneath most indices, industries, and stocks, provided the groundwork for a second half spurt that made it a very good year.

 

The Top Ten for the Week...

Sector

29Jun06 to
29Dec06

Week of 
29Dec 06

2006 Full Year Commentary

Computer Hardware

+23.06%

+0.81%

A 33% rally since the July lows made up for a disastrous first half. The 20% gain for the year puts Computer Hardware in the No. 11 slot.

Telecommunications +21.83% +2.08%

Telecommunications did well, maintaining above average relative strength throughout most of  the year, and coming in at No. 5 with a 27% gain.

Tobacco +20.78% +0.85%

With the exception of weakness in March and April, the smokers had a very good year, grabbing the top spot for 13 weeks during the market's summer swoon, and coming in at No. 3 for the year with a 28% gain. 

Utilities +19.50% +0.69%

This sector put in a lackluster first half of the year, but then came on strong during the summer, ending at No. 4 with a 27% yearly gain.

Chemicals +18.57% +1.14%

A disastrous selloff in late spring set the sector up for a strong bounce off support. A 22% gain for the year puts Chemicals in the No.10 slot.

Real Estate +18.50% +2.03%

Real Estate started the year near the bottom of the list but rose strongly by March, and ended the year at No. 2, up 28%. It refused to believe the data or the cries from the doom-and-gloomers predicting trouble ahead.

Leisure +18.23% +0.58%

Followed the market trend for most of the year, then accelerated off the summer lows for a 26% beginning-to-finish gain, and the No. 7 position.

Media +17.35% +0.59%

Flatlined until the summer. A good second-half rally totaled up to a 25% gain which is good enough for the No. 9 position.

Automotive +16.25% +1.65%

Failing to catch a bid until springtime, the Autos accelerated into the end of the year with a 27% gain, and the No. 6 spot.

Computer Software & Svcs +15.69% +1.08%

Strength early and late in the year puts this sector at No. 19, up 15%. A dramatic 23% spurt off a double bottom in June and July made up for the springtime selloff.

AND THE REST...
Insurance +14.62% +0.44%

Flatlined until August, then rallied strongly into the end of the year. A 16% gain placed the sector in the No. 16 spot.

Aerospace/Defense +14.32% +0.40%

A consistently strong performer all year. Only recently has weakness crept into its performance. The 26% return put it at No. 8 in the rankings.

Consumer Non-Durables +13.60% +0.32%

A decent 20% rally during the last 8 months helped this defensive sector tack on 14%, good enough for the No. 20 spot.

Specialty Retail +12.69% -0.63%

A 25% spurt from July to November gets the Specialty Retailers into the No. 23 position with a total yearly gain of 13%.

Financial Services +12.30% +0.75%

After dropping down into support in June, those levels held and provided a platform from which a 14% rally extended into year end, putting the Financials in the No. 21 position.

Materials & Construction +12.15% +2.00%

A 20% meltdown at mid-year cut total gains to only 8%, and pushed the formally high-flying sector down into the No. 29 position. 

 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 

+11.77% +0.97%

After hitting the yearly lows in February, the Granddaddy of the large-cap indices led the way higher for the rest of the market into year's end, good enough for the No.17 spot, up 16%. Only recently has the Dow relinquished its Top Ten ranking to other more volatile sectors. 

Consumer Durables +11.73% +0.69%

First half weakness averaged out second half strength to 12% for the full term, and the No. 24 position.

Health Services +11.49% +0.10%

Failing to rally early, then succumbing to the May-June weakness, this sector's come-back try into the end of the year was a flop. Up only 3% for 12 months of work puts it in the next to the bottom slot at No. 31.

Banking +11.03% +0.78%

A 10% early summer weakness was all that marred the slow, steady rise of the Banking sector. Coming in at No. 15, the group gained 16% for the year.

Food & Beverage +10.76% +0.33%

A gentile uptrend over the past year enabled this defensive sector to be a market leader during the summer weakness. Since then, the more dynamic sectors have grabbed the headlines. However, a 17% gain for the year helped put Food & Beverage into the No. 12 slot.

Diversified Services +8.92% +0.30%

Pretty well mimicked the broad averages all year. This No. 22 position comes in with a 13% gain. 

Electronics +8.36% +0.76%

It was the 25% selloff in May and June that did in the Electronics sector. It never recovered. The 8% gain puts it down near the bottom of the list at No. 28.

Internet +7.96% +0.21%

The selloff started at the first of the year and didn't end until August. A rally since failed to excite investors, restricting the sector to a yearly loss of 2%, smack dab on the bottom of the list.

Wholesale +7.93% +0.01%

A meager early spring rally was wiped out by the summer selloff. A mediocre rally into year-end amounts to a total of only 7%, and the No. 30 spot.

Drugs +6.71% +0.33%

Politics and failed products have hobbled this sector recently. Although it showed signs  of coming to life during the summer, as the days grew short so did the gains, totaling only 9%, only good enough for the No. 26 spot. 

Metals & Mining +5.93% +1.81%

Although the Metals were the No. 1 sector for the year, up 31%, start to finish, they ended the year weak. The 40% rally into the May highs was pretty much "it" for the year.

Retail +5.87% -0.15%

Never able to get any real interest generated. A yearly gain of 8% is good enough only for the No. 27 position.

Energy +4.23% +0.68%

The most volatile sector of the year. Four better-than-10% rallies (and subsequent selloffs) left this sector near the middle of the pack at No. 13, with a 17% gain.

Conglomerates +4.08% -0.25%

No. 25 with a 9% gain for a sector that showed absolutely no leadership this year.

Manufacturing +3.85% +1.21%

A strong 20% run into the May's highs, along with a failed try to reclaim former heights equals out to a yearly gain of 16%, and the No. 14 spot.

Transportation +2.32% +1.40%

Despite lackluster end-of-the-year performance, this sector did gain 15% for the whole term, good enough for the No. 18 spot.

Statistical Data: TeleChart 2005

Disclaimer

Simplespread.com (The Simplespread Strategy™) is an educational website, not a registered investment advisory service, and therefore does not give investment advice. Neither the information contained herein nor the opinions expressed throughout this website constitute a recommendation to purchase or sell any types of securities. References and illustrations using stocks and call options are for demonstration purposes only. Neither the author nor publisher have financial interest in any securities used for demonstration purposes. All information and data are taken from sources believed to be credible but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Both stocks and options involve considerable financial risk and are not suitable for many investors. Any funds placed at risk can lose real money. Consult your financial consultant, advisor, broker, banker, lawyer, accountant, psychologist, or other professional before committing funds to any investment. As in any learning experience, confirm the facts and theories on your own prior to embarking upon any at-risk investment program.

 
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