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A weekly newsletter based on the fact that stock market sectors are made
up of industries, that industries are
made up of individual stocks, and that
individual stocks in the same
industries and sectors move as a
group. The proven best way to profit
from the stock market is to keep your
funds invested in the stocks of top
performing sectors/industries at all times, and the best measurement of performance of
these sectors/industries is their price movement over the previous six months. Below
you will find commentary of Sectors,
Industries, and Stocks
based on the most recent 6-month
period as well as updates on the past
week’s action...
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It
Was A Very Good Year
When
I was seventeen
It
was a very good year
It
was a very good year for small town
girls
And
soft summer nights
We'd
hide from the lights
On
the village green
When
I was seventeen
When I was twenty-one
It
was a very good year
It
was a very good year for city girls
Who
lived up the stair
With
all that perfumed hair
And
it came undone
When
I was twenty-one
When I was thirty-five
It
was a very good year
It
was a very good year for blue-blooded
girls
Of
independent means
We'd
ride in limousines
Their
chauffeurs would drive
When
I was thirty-five
But now the days grow short
I'm
in the autumn of the year
And
now I think of my life as vintage wine
from
fine old kegs
from
the brim to the dregs
And
it poured sweet and clear
It
was a very good year
- Ervin Drake (1961)
Forty years ago (1966), Frank Sinatra won a
Grammy for these reflections upon a
life well lived. He probably would also
have put his stamp of approval on 2006
as a market well traded, if he were with us
now. Liquidity dripped from every
corner of the global banking vaults.
Commodities scaled dizzying heights
through springtime, and all other
sectors followed along for the ride.
The May-July swoon took just about
everything down with it, but support
underneath most indices, industries,
and stocks, provided the groundwork
for a second half spurt that made it a
very good year.
The
Top Ten for the Week...
|
Sector |
29Jun06
to
29Dec06 |
Week
of
29Dec 06 |
2006
Full
Year Commentary
|
|
Computer
Hardware |
+23.06%
|
+0.81% |
A
33% rally since the July lows
made up for a disastrous first
half. The 20% gain
for the year puts Computer
Hardware in the No. 11 slot. |
|
Telecommunications |
+21.83% |
+2.08% |
Telecommunications
did well, maintaining above
average relative strength
throughout most of the
year, and coming in at No. 5 with a 27% gain.
|
|
Tobacco
|
+20.78% |
+0.85% |
With
the exception of weakness in
March and April, the smokers
had a very good year, grabbing
the top spot for 13 weeks
during the market's summer
swoon, and coming in at No. 3
for the year with a 28%
gain. |
|
Utilities |
+19.50% |
+0.69% |
This
sector put in a lackluster
first half of the year, but
then came on strong during the
summer, ending at No. 4 with a
27% yearly gain.
|
|
Chemicals
|
+18.57% |
+1.14%
|
A
disastrous selloff in late
spring set the sector up for a
strong bounce off support. A
22% gain for the year puts
Chemicals in the No.10 slot.
|
|
Real
Estate
|
+18.50% |
+2.03% |
Real
Estate started
the year near the bottom of
the list but
rose strongly by March, and
ended the year at No. 2, up 28%.
It refused to believe the data
or the cries from the
doom-and-gloomers predicting
trouble ahead. |
|
Leisure
|
+18.23% |
+0.58%
|
Followed
the market trend for most of the
year, then accelerated off the
summer lows for a 26%
beginning-to-finish gain, and
the No. 7 position.
|
|
Media
|
+17.35% |
+0.59% |
Flatlined
until the summer. A good
second-half rally totaled up
to a 25% gain which is good enough for
the No. 9 position.
|
|
Automotive
|
+16.25% |
+1.65%
|
Failing
to catch a bid until springtime,
the Autos accelerated into the
end of the year with a 27% gain,
and the No. 6 spot.
|
|
Computer
Software & Svcs |
+15.69% |
+1.08% |
Strength
early and late in the year
puts this sector at No. 19, up
15%. A dramatic 23% spurt off
a double bottom in June and
July made up for the springtime
selloff.
|
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AND THE
REST... |
|
Insurance
|
+14.62% |
+0.44%
|
Flatlined
until August, then rallied
strongly into the end of the
year. A 16% gain placed the
sector in the No. 16 spot.
|
|
Aerospace/Defense
|
+14.32% |
+0.40%
|
A
consistently strong performer
all year. Only recently has
weakness crept into its
performance. The 26% return put
it at No. 8 in the rankings.
|
|
Consumer
Non-Durables
|
+13.60% |
+0.32%
|
A
decent 20% rally during the last
8 months helped this defensive
sector tack on 14%, good
enough for the No. 20 spot.
|
|
Specialty
Retail
|
+12.69% |
-0.63%
|
A
25% spurt from July to November
gets the Specialty Retailers
into the No. 23 position with a
total yearly gain of 13%.
|
|
Financial
Services
|
+12.30% |
+0.75%
|
After
dropping down into support in
June, those levels held and
provided a platform from which a
14% rally extended into year
end, putting the Financials in
the No. 21 position.
|
|
Materials
& Construction
|
+12.15% |
+2.00%
|
A
20% meltdown at mid-year cut
total gains to only 8%, and
pushed the formally high-flying
sector down into the
No. 29 position.
|
|
Dow
Jones Industrial Avg.
|
+11.77% |
+0.97%
|
After
hitting the yearly lows in
February, the Granddaddy of the
large-cap indices led the way
higher for the rest of the
market into year's end, good
enough for the No.17 spot, up
16%. Only recently has the Dow
relinquished its Top Ten ranking
to other more volatile
sectors.
|
|
Consumer
Durables
|
+11.73% |
+0.69%
|
First
half weakness averaged out
second half strength to 12% for
the full term, and
the No. 24 position.
|
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Health
Services
|
+11.49% |
+0.10%
|
Failing
to rally early, then succumbing
to the May-June weakness, this
sector's come-back try into the
end of the year was a flop. Up
only 3% for 12 months of work
puts it in the next to the
bottom slot at No. 31.
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Banking
|
+11.03% |
+0.78%
|
A
10% early summer weakness was
all that marred the slow, steady
rise of the Banking sector.
Coming in at No. 15, the group
gained 16% for the year.
|
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Food
& Beverage
|
+10.76% |
+0.33%
|
A
gentile uptrend over the past
year enabled this defensive
sector to be a market leader
during the summer
weakness. Since then, the more
dynamic sectors have grabbed the
headlines. However, a 17% gain
for the year helped put Food & Beverage into the No. 12 slot.
|
|
Diversified
Services
|
+8.92% |
+0.30%
|
Pretty
well mimicked the broad averages
all year. This No. 22 position
comes in with a 13% gain.
|
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Electronics
|
+8.36% |
+0.76%
|
It
was the 25% selloff in May and
June that did in the Electronics
sector. It never recovered. The
8% gain puts it down near the
bottom of the list at No. 28.
|
|
Internet
|
+7.96% |
+0.21%
|
The
selloff started at the first of
the year and didn't end until
August. A rally since failed to
excite investors, restricting the sector to a
yearly loss of 2%, smack dab on
the bottom of the list.
|
|
Wholesale |
+7.93% |
+0.01% |
A
meager early spring rally was
wiped out by the summer
selloff. A mediocre rally
into year-end amounts to a
total of only 7%, and the No. 30
spot. |
|
Drugs |
+6.71% |
+0.33% |
Politics
and failed products have
hobbled this sector recently. Although
it showed signs of
coming to life during the
summer, as the days grew short
so did the gains, totaling
only 9%, only good enough for the No. 26
spot. |
|
Metals
& Mining |
+5.93% |
+1.81% |
Although
the Metals were the No. 1
sector for the year, up 31%,
start to finish,
they ended the year
weak. The 40% rally into the
May highs was pretty much
"it" for the year. |
|
Retail |
+5.87% |
-0.15% |
Never
able to get any real interest
generated. A yearly gain
of 8% is good enough only for
the No. 27 position. |
|
Energy |
+4.23% |
+0.68% |
The
most volatile sector of the
year. Four better-than-10% rallies (and
subsequent selloffs) left this
sector near the middle of the
pack at No. 13, with a 17%
gain. |
|
Conglomerates |
+4.08% |
-0.25% |
No.
25 with a 9% gain for a sector
that showed absolutely no
leadership this year. |
|
Manufacturing |
+3.85% |
+1.21% |
A
strong 20% run into the May's
highs, along with a failed try
to reclaim former heights
equals out to a yearly gain of
16%, and the No. 14 spot. |
|
Transportation |
+2.32% |
+1.40% |
Despite
lackluster end-of-the-year
performance, this sector did
gain 15% for the whole term, good
enough for the No. 18 spot. |
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Statistical
Data: TeleChart 2005 |
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