The Next Great Bubble Boom - 
How to Profit From the Great Boom in History: 
2005 - 2009

Harry Dent, Jr.

Originally scheduled to be published in 2003 as “The Greatest Bull Market in History, 2003-2008: Investment, Business, and Life Strategies for the Greatest Boom Ahead and the Greatest Bust to Follow,” Harry Dent wants you to be fully invested RIGHT NOW. Just remember to get out before the crowd makes its exit starting after 2009. Harry may have dropped his warning of hard times ahead from the second half of the title of the book, but not from the content.

Got that? In now; out in 4 years. Piece of cake!

His reasoning is based on demographics and cycles which have served him well in two previous books: “The Great Boom Ahead” (1993) and “The Roaring 2000s” (1998). Anyone with a track record like his can be forgiven for his failure to see the 2000-2002 tech crash (Note: Of the Russell 3000 stocks, about 54% have risen in price since the beginning of 1998 making Dent’s predictions of a “roaring good time” not that bad after all).

So, what has Harry done for us lately?

For one thing, there are enough charts, graphs, and visual explanations here to make this an excellent reference book on the past 50-100 years of economic, financial, and social history. His sources cover practically every depository of research from newsletter writers, to authors, to economists, to academia, to the government. This, in itself, is worth the price of the book. Another worthwhile point is that you will learn enough about demographics to make you something of an expert on the subject – useful knowledge to have on hand when debating the current Social Security predicament. And although he references Strauss and Howe’s excellent “Generations” for his demographic work, I found it disappointing that he did not also mention their more recent “The Fourth Turning” which fits in nicely with his view of our apocalyptic future over the next 15-20 years.

The nuts and bolts of the book covers recommended types of investments: what, how, why, and when. Additional nuggets include everything from planning your future income and expenses based on the fact that tax rates are likely to rise significantly over the next 15 years (a concern also voiced by Suze Orman), to delaying charitable contributions for 5 years,  to making a quick exit from the major metropolitan areas of the country.

It’s not a rosy picture for the future of our country after 2009, and he is not alone in making some of the same dire arguments as other more famous “doom and gloomers.” These long-term warnings have a way of overshadowing Dent’s short term bullishness to the point that one might be forgiven for taking to the hills rather than taking to the market after a thorough reading. And this highlights the problems with long-range predictions which can be summed up with a few questions:

What are you doing this Friday night?
What are you doing next Friday night?
What are you doing a month from Friday night?
What are you doing a year from Friday night?
What are you doing 5 years from Friday night?
What are you doing 10 years from Friday night?

(Substitute “your money” for “you” and you get an idea of where this leads.)

Could anything go wrong with your plans? Could you change your mind? Could your environment change? Could your circumstances change?

When you see how hard it is to get a handle on your own doings just a few months down the road then you see what a treacherous business long-range predictions can be.
But for those who want to try their hand at it (and we’re glad people like Dent do) we reap one important benefit: the predicting of danger ahead serves as the warning signals for potential catastrophes which just might be avoided if we take evasive action now. As the stock market has predicted 8 of the last 4 recessions, dire predictions of the future seldom come true because we adjust our activity specifically in order to avoid the prophesied  breakdown. Ah, the joy of feedback!

Whether Dent will be right over the next decade or so will play out day by day, but a close reading of this book will help you have better command over the decisions that you will be making as time marches on. Who knows, he just might be right. And then again…maybe not. But either way, it’s your money that’s out there on the line and the more you know the better you’ll be able to protect it.