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NEXT
The
Future Just Happened
Michael
Lewis
NEXT is a two-part book
about progress; how it
occurs, how it upsets the
current status quo, and
how it either continues on
or is stymied by an
establishment that becomes
complacent with its
earlier triumphs.
The first part describes
our rapidly changing world
through the
"outlaw" actions
of young outsiders using
new technology in
unforeseen ways insiders
could never imagine. The
second part serves as an
interpretation of how this
new world is evolving and
its implications for our
future. About half way
through the book the true
genius of Lewis becomes
evident. Sandwiched
between the two segments,
and acting as a bridge, is
as good (and simple) a
description as you will
ever see (he puts it in
terms and images even the
most ardent revolutionary
can appreciate) of how
capitalism works and has
been able to survive all
these years. It comes off
as a riff on the
capitalistic mentality
that would do Adam Smith
proud, and spin Marx and
Lenin around in their
graves while putting our
mainstream economists to
shame.
To quote from pages 135 -
137: "Socialistic
impulses will always
linger in the air, because
they grow directly out of
the human experience of
capitalism. The neurotic,
high-strung relationship
between the outside and
the inside was the
market's new and improved
way of dealing with the
problem. Socialism hadn't
been killed by capitalism.
It had been subsumed by
it. The market has found a
way not only to permit the
people who are most
threatening to it their
rebellious notions, but to
also capitalize on them.
Gnutella was one example
of this; Internet was
another...It was dreamed
up by an academic with an
anticommerical streak
named Tim Berners-Lee. It
was commercialized by a
couple of marginal players
in Silicon Valley - Jim
Clark and Marc Andreessen
- at least one of whom
(Clark) was a sworn enemy
of the big corporation.
Five years later it was a
mainstream commercial
technology...Just as
people needed other people
to tell them what they
were, ideas needed other
ideas to tell them what
they meant. That's perhaps
one reason that people so
explicitly hostile to
capitalism were given a
longer leash than usual;
they posed no fundamental
risk. [These]
people...linger on the
fringe until they dream up
something that has great
commercial potential. Then
some big company swoops in
and buys them, or they
give birth to the big
company themselves. Inside
every alienated hacker
[read: revolutionary] who
thinks he stands for the
`good things that
ultimately don't matter to
most businesses' there is
a tycoon struggling to get
out. It's not the system
he hates. His gripe is
with the price the system
initially offers him to
collaborate. The incentive
for the outsider was to
attack the inside right up
to the moment he was
co-opted by it. The
incentive for the insider
- and this took some
getting used to -was to
allow yourself to be
attacked, and then co-opt
your most ferocious
attackers, and their best
ideas...And in the end,
those people give birth to
the ideas that in turn
give birth to fantastic
wealth. The only thing
capitalism cannot survive
is stability. Stability -
true stability - is an
absence of progress, and a
dearth of new
wealth."
Go back and read that
quote again. It's
priceless. 357 words that
explain an economic mode
of thought that has
consumed thousands of
pages and millions of
hours of research,
discussion, debate,
attack, and defense, while
creating the immeasurable
wealth we all share in
today, one way or the
other.
Lewis then follows up (and
ends) by expanding his
scope to expose the
rationale "the
establishment" has
used throughout history to
solidify its place in
society after it becomes
complacent, diverting its
creative energy into
protecting the status quo
rather than pressing on
with the business of
progress (read:
competition). Using Sun
Microsystems former chief
engineer Bill Joy's April
2000 Wired Magazine rant
giving credence to the
Unibomber's fear about the
survival of mankind in the
age of computers, Lewis
explains that it appears
the old tech guard, the
innovative minds that
built the technology of
the past 20 years, now
realizes it is becoming
obsolete at the hands of
the new young turks who
have taken hold of
progress' baton and raced
on, leaving them behind.
Here is where I wish
Lewis' next offering would
be a book about how
progress throughout
history has occurred in
fits and jerks, frequently
stymied because
"elites" (standfasts)
decide that things have
advanced enough and it's
time to consolidate gains
(their gains). The rest of
us suffer until the next
phase of advancement
breaks free of reactionary
chains to ignite a new
wave of technological
progress destined to
benefit an even larger
consumer base. It is a
needed book.
Another thing Lewis
doesn't say is that we've
been co-opting the
machines we've invented
ever since the beginning
of time. Every machine, to
use Marshall McLuhan's
phrase, is an extension of
ourselves. Just has the
hammer and saw are
extensions of our hands,
so it is that computers
are extensions of our
brains.
In closing, Lewis does
acknowledge the more
positive aspects of
technology as advocated by
Ray Kurzweil ("The
Age of Spiritual
Machines" - 2000, and
"Fantastic Voyage:
Live Long Enough to Live
Forever" - 2004),
implying what we already
know: the alternative to
NEXT is what has always
lurked in stasis - Death.
It's what the NEXT NEW NEW
THING has always been all
about.
As famed Silicon Valley
venture capitalist Don
Valentine said in an
recent interview,
"Nothing is
revolutionary; it's
evolutionary."
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Simplespread.com (The Simplespread
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