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GLOSSARY
Annualized
gain vs. average gain: The average gain is frequently used to measure
popular stock market investments and averages. However,
"average" is misleading. You cannot average several year's
returns together and end up with a realistic computation of your
monies.
Example: Let's say you start out with $10,000 and make 100% the first year
then lose 50% the next year. Averaging out the returns, you should end up with a
50% total gain for the 2 years, or 25% per year.
However, in the real world, if you start out with $10,000 and make 100% the first year, you
end up with $20,000. Then, if you lose 50% of that $20,000 the next year, you
end up with...your original $10,000. So you actually broke even for
the two years. Ah, the mystery of math.
Two great books on the subject: How to Lie With Statistics and Facts
from Figures.
"Beat
the numbers:" A game played in the 1990s by companies, analysts,
and mutual funds as a way to hype stocks. Let's say you're a salesperson
for Universal Tenhernia Consolidated Enterprises, Ltd. Every month you and
the other sales people have to meet with the sales manager to discuss
prospects. You hate it. Everybody gets put on the carpet. In order to get
an idea of how well business is developing, your sales manager asks each
person to make an estimate of what their sales will be in the coming month
- and woe to the poor schmuck who fails to meet his goals. The other
salespersons (deadheads, you think) give accurate estimations of their
business prospects, but you, being a bright bulb, decide to under estimate
what you know you can produce. Let's say you undercut it by 10%.
Then out you all go to meet the prospects.
Next month, everybody comes in close to their estimates, that is everybody
but you. Somehow, you report, you have been able to exceed your forecast
by better than 10%. Who gets the kudos for the month? You do, you old star
player, you.
It works so well that you begin to regularly under estimate your
production, and you guessed it...every month you're the standout
performer, exceeding expectations by that magic 10%. Your promotions put
you up in the executive suite...until you've created such a reputation
that when that inevitable day comes when you can't live up to your hype,
you fall flat on your face and take the one-way elevator down to the
garage.
That's how it happened in the 90s. It was just magic that so many
companies "beat the numbers" by one cent. The analysts, the
companies, the media, they all loved it. And that good news drove stock
prices higher and higher. The story sold. Everybody was getting
rich...until one day, some kid shouted that the emperor didn't have any
clothes. Then the market took the elevator ride, along with trillions of
"inflated" value, down to the bottom floor. A sad tale, but a
true tale.
Book
Value: A financial/accounting term used to designate how much a
company would be worth if all its assets were sold and used to pay off all
liabilities. Whatever is leftover would be considered the true
"breakup" value of the company. In the 1980s, Leveraged Buy Outs
(LBOs) were the rage. Raiders (Pickens, Boesky, Icahn, Davis, Perlman,
Dunlap, etc.) would look at a company whose stock was cheap compared to
what it could be worth if broken up and sold off in pieces.
This is the only way Wall Streeters can talk of true "worth." If
broken up, a company is really worth so many dollars and cents. Anybody
else talking of "worth" is simply giving their opinion of what
other people should pay for a company based on what some theoretical numbers
add up to. The LBO raiders of the 1980s cleaned up corporate America and
helped usher in the digital age by getting rid of a lot of dead wood in
corporate offices.
Business
Cycle/Profit Cycle: It is something which a lot of people would
like to believe doesn't exist. Maybe they believe it's been legislated out
of existence. Or maybe some benevolent force has removed it from the earth
and replaced it with peace and good will to everyone. However, this concept of boom and bust is part of the path
of progress. Nothing gets better without it. We all would like to believe
that its misery-causing affects can be ameliorated through some sort of
government administrative counsel. But history shows that the heavy
hand of control always makes the situation worse. Progress grinds to
a halt. People slip backward into a more "natural world" that is
nasty, brutish, and short, to borrow from Thomas Hobbs.
Why was the Chrysler Building completed in 1929 and the Empire State
Building in 1931 - just as the hubris of the 1920s dissolved into the
Depression? And the Sears Building completed in 1973, just as the Dow
Jones Industrial Average topped out at 1053 prior to dropping to half that
lofty height in the next several years of Watergate and the Arab Oil
Embargo? And wasn't modern-day Houston built during the oil boom of the
1970s and 1980s only to watch see-through buildings sit empty for many
years?
Simply stated, the business cycle or profit cycle works like this: Let's
say you discover a cure for cancer in your garage, borrowing from Mom's
old formula for whooping cough. It works on your neighbor's lung cancer,
your daughter's skin cancer, and your cousin's pancreatic cancer. It only
costs you $5 to whip up a bottle and you can sell it for $10 a bottle.
You're in business.
Since you've got a day job, the only time you can manufacture the stuff is
on the weekend. Saturday and Sunday sees you making 100 bottles. During the
week, you get your kids and friends to go out and sell your discovery.
Your fame grows. Newspapers broadcast the new cure for cancer.
After a few weeks, you realize that at $5 of profit per bottle, you're
wasting your time working at the office. You turn in your resignation at
Worldwide WIdgets and start producing Cancer Stuff fulltime. Business is
so good you have to hire a couple of production helpers, then a few
outside salespersons. You get interviewed on nationwide TV. Magazine
reporters knock on your door. You get nominated businessperson of the year
in your hometown of Hamlet City.
Within the year, you're moving to more spacious surroundings. You need
expanded staff and facilities to keep up with the demand. Your logo-ed
building is the jewel of a new commercial park. These additional
business expenses drive up the cost of producing a bottle to $15, so you
raise the price of Cancer Stuff to $25. Business keeps growing. You keep
expanding. You sponsor a little league, a veteran's parade, a tennis tournament.
You're person-of-the-year!
But one day you notice an ad on TV for something that sounds mysteriously
like what you're producing, and they're selling it at $20 a bottle. It's
made way out west somewhere you've never heard of so you don't pay much
attention to it until your production manager requests an emergency
meeting to discuss falling demand. You huddle with staff and plan a new,
revamped marketing plan: Cancer Stuff Plus. More money goes out the window
for promotion. The accounting department sends you a note that there's not much
more money coming in than is going out. That happens the same day your top
two salespersons announce they're leaving. You learn you've just been
raided by
the competition. You get a call at midnight from the head accountant
informing you that you are now operating at a net loss. You need to find
some money fast just to make payroll next month.
You institute a new marketing plan and cut the price of Cancer Stuff Plus by 25%
in a desperate attempt to win back customers. A business reporter shows up
to discuss the prospects for Cancer Stuff Plus in light of at least a dozen
manufacturers now competing for business worldwide. You cut prices again
and push production, flooding the market. You'll show them who's top dog.
The price for Cancer Stuff on Ebay is now $2.95 a bottle and you're losing
money faster than a piggy bank with a hole in it. You hire a consulting
firm to assess your market. They report that of a total of 32 companies
who were once producing Cancer Stuff Plus, 27 of them have closed or are in
financial straits. That's small comfort to you who just had to plead with
your banker to increase your credit line.
Your employees stage a strike for more health coverage and shorter working
hours. You visit your doctor to complain about frequent chest pains and a
numb left arm.
Sometime later, you sit on your son's front porch, staring out into a field. What
happened? You had a good product that benefited mankind. You sold it for a
fair profit. Why did so many others try to horn in on your business? Why
did they screw up a good thing? What were they, stupid? Didn't they know
that too many cooks spoil the stew?
You take out your dusty briefcase and finger the stock certificates
that Big Drugs, Inc. gave you for you company. It's a pittance
compared to what you were once worth. You just can't figure out what
happened to something that started out so good.
And so it goes. As soon as a product or service proves there's a healthy
demand for it, competition arises to get in on the easy money. Eventually,
the market gets flooded and prices drop, profits disappear, and weak
companies fall by the wayside. When supply eventually contracts enough to
equal out to demand, health returns to that industry, but in the mean
time, jobs, money, careers, and egos all fall victim to the retrenchment
process. Thus it is; thus it always will be. That's human nature, at least
over the past several thousand years.
Buy
and Hold: A rather stupid theory that asks you to believe your
decision today will continue to be a good decision tomorrow. In a static
world it makes sense. In a dynamic world, it's the antithesis of
rationality. As Zig Zigler (and probably many before him) says, "New
information enables (I would substitute requires) you to
make a new decision based on that new information." The key phrase
here is "new decision." But that also requires you to think,
analyze, and decide. Too much work for too many people.
Buy and hold is based on faulty chart work. It implies just because
"the market" (some market average - composed of many stocks) can
be displayed to show a steadily rising price line over an extended period
of time, that individual stocks also rise continuously, ad infinitum. The
sad truth is that this wildly misleading indicator average is
reconstituted regularly to remove the weak stocks and add strong stocks
(read survivorship bias).
No buy and hold within the average (index). It would be an interesting
study for some grad student to figure out the amount of money has been
made by buying and holding the stars of today (Amgen, Intel, Microsoft,
Home Depot, etc.) versus the buying and holding (into oblivion) the stars
of yesterday (Polaroid, Equity Funding, Four Seasons Nursing Homes, Enron,
Quest, Global Crossing, Kmart, Levin-Townsend Computer, etc.). Sure, we
all hear about the fabulous success stories, but the war stories don't
usually make it to the headlines unless a lawsuit is coming up. As long as
we are fortunate to live in a relative free-market society where
individuals are unencumbered enough to start new businesses in an attempt
to make life better, longer, and happier, then you will have to constantly
watch the markets, continually culling the chaff from your holdings. The
bottom line is that we investors have a responsibility to shift our assets
toward what we want produced. It is only by taking upon ourselves that
responsibility that we truly participate in making the world what we want to
live in tomorrow.
Call option: The right to
buy 100 shares of a specific stock at a specific price for a specific
amount of time.
Discipline: Having
enough confidence in your strategy to act when it says to act. If you
don't believe you won't act, and therefore, your investing will be chaotic
and random - a sure way to lose money.
Delta: See Greeks.
Dow Jones Theory: Imagine
you check into a beach resort, then head toward the water. You want to
stake out your territory, oil down, then settle in for a day in the
sun. But you need to know whether the tide is coming in or going out so
you can decide where to spread out your towel. So you stand and wait. You
watch the tide come in, then roll back out. You pick up a stick and plant
it at the high-water mark. You wait. In comes the tide again, and it
washes past the stick farther toward the hotel. You push another stick in
the sand at this new high point. And you wait. The third time the tide
comes in, it again passes the earlier high points and wets new sand.
Aha! You know the tide is coming in.
This is the way the Dow Theory works. If the market (DJ Averages) makes a
new high, then the market is rising. As long as each successive rally
surpasses the previous one, the market is rallying. If it fails to make a
new high, then begins to make a series of new lows, you know the market is
falling. As the popular saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
This is one of the oldest and surest theories of stock investing.
Formula (The
Simplespread Strategy - The Buy/Write):
Net return if call option is exercised = proceeds of call plus or minus
the profit or loss on the stock.
Net return if position is closed out prior to call exercise = profit or
loss from call added or subtracted from the profit or loss on the stock.
Gamma: See Greeks.
Goes to Size:
There is a long-standing theory on Wall Street that stock prices "go
to size," meaning prices rise to find increased supply, or drop to
find increased demand. How does this work? Imagine you're the specialist
on the NYSE. Your XYZ stock is $60.00 bid, $60.10 ask - a couple hundred
shares on either side. Let's say that
several thousand shares are offered at gradually higher prices up to
$63.00. Also let's say that several thousand shares are bid at gradually
lower prices down to $57.00.
A broker comes into your crowd and indicates he has 100,000 shares to buy.
Nowhere is there enough size to transact the order. He doesn't want to buy
all offers up to $63.00 and end up with only a few thousand shares, so the
word goes out to entities that might have stock for sale. Remember that
everyone involved here, the specialist and the various brokers, not to
mention the buyer, all want a
trade to take place. And you can bet
that brokers are working the phones, contacting as many potential sellers
they can find.
Eventually, the brokers find several sellers with a total of 100,000
shares to sell. The price everybody can agree upon is $62.40. The trade is
made. The buyer does better than having to piecemeal the order at ever
increasing prices; the sellers were able to unload their stock without disrupting
the market on the downside. Everybody is happy.
Remember it wasn't because a buyer wanted to acquire 100,000 shares of
stock that the price printed at $62.50; it was because brokers were able
to find enough sellers agreeable to sell at that price. The brokers put
together the deal in order to make the transaction by amassing a
sellers consortium of 100,000 shares. That's why stocks to to
"size."
Greeks: Delta,
Gamma, and Theta (and Vega and Rho). Simplespreaders can
disregard them. But although they don't enter into the computations necessary
for The Simplespread, we'll define
them anyway.
Delta is the theoretical numerical value that measures how much an option rallies or falls in relation to how
much its stock rallies or falls. A stock is trading at $40 and the
January 40 call is trading at $3. Let's say the call has a Delta of .60.
That means it is expected that if the stock rallies $1 to $41, the call will rally
$0.60 to $3.60. If the
stock drops by $1 to $39, the call will also drop but by only $0.60 down
to $3.40.
As a stock rallies above the exercise price of an option, the call's Delta gradually
rises to approach 1.00 whereby it would be trading dollar for dollar with
the stock. As a stock drops below the exercise price, the call's Delta
will gradually approach zero and the call will eventually be worthless.
Gamma is the theoretical numerical value assigned to how much the Delta
will change as the stock rallies or falls. In the above example, let's say
the stock rallies to $41. Also let's say the Delta rises to .65. Do
the math...and you'll see that the Gamma equals to +.05.
Theta is the theoretical numerical estimate for how much an
option's value loses in time decay over the period of 24 hours
providing the stock doesn't move.
Then we have Vega which addresses how an option's value changes due
to a volatility change, and Rho which concerns itself with the
affect of interest rate changes on an option's value.
But, as stated above, Simplespreaders are concerned only with whether an
option's price falls within desired parameters, not what the
"theoretical values" are.
Hedge
(to hedge): To take a position in one security in order to reduce the
risk of holding a position in another security. The assumption is that the two
securities have an inverse relationship to each other which can be quantified and
predicted. This frequently means one
will go up if the other one goes down. Your goal is to profit
more from one than you lose on the other.
Implied Volatility: Estimated
forward volatility of a stock based on the price its options are trading
at. Let's say that XYZ stock has a volatility of 20% based on its past
12-month price movement. But its options are priced by the market (buyers
and sellers of those options) comparable to XYZ trading at a 40%
volatility (computed value as indicated by the Black-Scholes Model). Are
the options "overpriced" or is XYZ about to go ballistic? That's
the question option traders confront daily. Buyers say "fairly
priced;" sellers say "overpriced."
Example: XYZ is trading at $28. It's Nov 30 call is trading at $2.10.
According to Black-Scholes, the correct value of the Nov 30 call should be
$1.82, making the call $0.28 "overpriced." With the call trading at $2.10,
the Implied Volatility of the call is 40%. Thus, either the call is
"overpriced" due to aggressive buyers, or XYZ is going to become
much more volatile in the near future. So, two things can happen: XYZ
begins to jump around quickly indicating the call was correctly priced to
take into account the increased future volatility of the stock, or the
call was "overpriced" and will lose its excessive value in the
days ahead as XYZ continues to trade at a 20% volatility. See Volatility.
Manias: "Manias
are when nearly everybody agrees, creating Shared Mistake." Donald
Coxe
Momentum: Newton
and Galileo's idea that a body in motion tends to stay in motion until it
reverses. In the stock market, it is quite valid over the short term, but
totally invalid over the long term. Why? Again, because of the business
cycle. Any number of studies prove this out. Companies and industries
"catch the wave," so to speak, and ride it for 6 months to maybe
a year or more. Competition heats up, and over the course of 3-5 years, the trend
will certainly have run its course. Moral of the story: Buy short-term
momentum; sell long-term momentum.
Oscillators: Non-trending
statistics which measure how much above or below a mean (or normal) the
price of a security is. Regularly, when oscillators rise too above the
mean they fall back toward the
mean; and when they fall too far under the mean, then they rise back toward the mean.
Sometimes called reversion to the mean.
Resistance: A price level
at which it can be expected that sellers will overwhelm buyers, forcing the
stock to fall.
Rolling Down:
Covering (buying back) the call you had previously sold in order to
sell a call with a lower exercise price. We
strongly advise against doing this.
Rolling Out (same as rolling
over): Covering (buying back) the call you had previously sold in
order to sell another call with a longer duration.
Rolling Over (same as
rolling out): Covering (buying back) the call you had previously sold
in order to sell another call with a longer duration.
Rolling Up: Covering (buying back) the call
you had previously sold in order to sell a call with a higher exercise
price. We strongly advise against doing this.
Spread: The simultaneous purchase of one
security and the sale of another security, each of which have some
relationship to the other. The purpose of these transactions is the
profiting by the relative movement of one to the other.
Standard Deviation: A measure of
volatility and probability used frequently by options traders to assess
risk. Let's say that you're supposed to be at work at 9 am. Because you're
human, you show up 5 minutes late sometimes. Also, sometimes you show up 5
minutes early. And other times you're 2 or 3 minutes early or late, but
seldom ever more than 10 minutes one way or the other. If your boss
plotted your punctuality as a distribution curve over the past year, it
would resemble a bell curve with maybe 90% of your arrivals between 5
minutes early and 5 minutes late.
Now, let's say your buddy in the next cubicle is not as punctual as your
are. He shows up 1/2 an hour late sometimes, but then to make it up in his
own mind, he comes in 1/2 an hour early sometimes. And of course, he also
misses both sides of the mark by 20, 15, and 10 minutes frequently. His
distribution would be a flatter bell curve, showing a much wider
dispersion.
Standard deviation is derived mathematically by taking the mean of all the
inputs, then subtracting the mean from each input, then squaring the
differences, then adding the difference together, then dividing by the
number of inputs minus one, then taking the square root of that result.
Got that? Good. Now forget it. All you need to know is that a one standard
deviation move is quite probable, a two-standard deviation move is less
likely, and a three-standard deviation move even more remote.
In our example above, let's say your standard deviation works out to 5
minutes, plus or minus, while you buddy's works out to 18 minutes, plus or
minus. What does it mean? It means that if your boss wanted to make sure
somebody would be present to meet an important client at your office at 9
am tomorrow morning, you would be the more likely choice to be assigned
that job.
In this case, standard deviation is simply a graphical representation of punctuality that confirms the
old adage that a picture is worth a thousand words. You're more reliable.
You're buddy's more risky. It's the same for the investment world - it's
all about managing risk. And before you can manage risk, you have to
measure risk. This is one way to do just that.
A better explanation: Find the standard deviation of 4, 9, 11, 12, 17, 5,
8, 12, 14.
First work out the mean: 10.222 (add up the nine numbers and divide by n
(9).
Now, subtract the mean individually from each of the numbers in the
question and square the result. This is equivalent to the (x - xbar)²
step. x refers to the values in the question.
x
4 9
11 12
17 5
8 12 14
(x - x)² 38.7 1.49 0.60
3.16 45.9 27.3 4.94
3.16 14.3
Now add up these results: 139.55
Divide by n-1. n is the number of values, so in this case is 8: 17.44
Finally, take the square root of this = 4.18. And that's your
standard deviation.
Support: A price level at which it can be
expected that buyers will overwhelm buyers, forcing the stock to rise.
Technical Analysis: The study of supply and
demand for any tradable commodity - stocks, bonds, options, futures, gold,
cattle, orange juice, British Pounds, etc. Tradable commodities do not
live in a world of chaos. Trends, as Newton said, tend to stay in motion
until they reverse. Look at any chart and probably some 98% of the data
will show a definite direction over a stated period of time, either up,
down, or sideways. The other 10% or so consists of reversals of that
trend.
Technical Analysis seeks to determine the strength of that trend and
whether it will continue or reverse. Terms such as support and resistance
are used to delineate points at which there is expectation of a
reversal.
Theta: See Greeks.
Trend: Something that is continuing
in its most recent direction. If the trend is positive, in sports, it's called a "streak."
In human accomplishment, it's called "flow" or "in the
groove." If negative, it's called a "slump," or "in a
rut." In random-walk parlance, it doesn't exist.
Go figure.
Everything is made up of either trends or reversals of trends.
Trends last about 98% of the time, reversals about 2% of the time. Old
Wall Street adage: "The trend is your friend." If you want to
take money out of Wall Street, you'd better believe it.
Vendor financing: The practice of
loaning your customers money to buy your product. It didn't work well in
the dot-com mania - think Enron. It raises risk for everyone concerned. Now, China,
India, and
Japan are using it to finance our purchases of their goods. We borrow
money from them to buy their production. It keeps the Japanese, Indian,
and Chinese
workers happy so the local politicians are happy. It makes us happy
because we get to keep on borrowing and consuming to our heart's content.
Only problem is that some day, we'll have to pay them back.
Visual Analysis: See Technical
Analysis.
Volatility: How much a stock has
varied from its mean over a period of time. Most measures of
volatility in the stock market use one year. Volatility is backward
looking. It tells you what has happened in the past. A stock with a
volatility of 20% has rallied or declined an average of 20% from it mean
over the past 12 months. Options on that stock may, or may not, reflect
the same 20% volatility. See Implied Volatility.
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