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FAQ
In the interests of clarity and
brevity, the following questions are compilations of questions that
have come to us seeking an explanation of the Simplespread Strategy. We have
combined subjects that are similar in nature, rewording them to encompass
the largest span of inquiry. We welcome your query and will try to
answer it to the best of our ability.
Why
don't you offer a model portfolio?
Anyone seeking to learn how to take money out
of Wall Street must be persuaded on the basis of logical argument and
understanding of basic concepts rather than on
any record of "past performance." We put no credence on
"track record," - neither a portfolio manager's nor a
"system." All too often the "hot hand" is merely
someone or something being in the right place at the right time, and not
repeatable.
We strive for consistency in thought and action. The environment is always
changing but the principles stay the same. As numerous examples in these pages show,
Simplespreads were available frequently over any time period
you want to choose. Whether you, as an investor, would have been able
financially or intellectually to take advantage of them is pure
conjecture. We do not believe that model portfolios are a good concept in
theory, and therefore continue to shy away from them. Most
options sites emphasize the selling of "overpriced" options.
However, your work omits mention of any "overpriced-underpriced"
considerations. Explain.
You are correct that Simplespreading puts its main emphasis on the stock
rather than the call option. That is because your profit or loss will
depend primarily on what the stock does rather than on the original value of the call.
A particularly overpriced option doesn't have anything to do with whether
the stock is in a leading industry group or that the stock is at an area
of support.
We would add that when presented with the choice of two similar stocks, one with an "expensive" option and one with a
"cheap" option, we'd certainly go with selling the expensive one.
The window of opportunity opens and closes. If you find it and are in a
position of taking advantage of it, go for it. But if you miss it, just
relax. Another opportunity will come along soon. You mix the
terms Simplespreading and covered options writing and Buy/Writing
frequently. Isn't your "Simplespreading" the same as
covered options writing?
No. Covered options writing or Buy/Writing is the singular act of selling
call options on stocks you buy (or already own). Simplespreading adds the
requirements that the stock/option combination be initiated
simultaneously, that the stock be in a strong industry, that the stock be a
strong stock itself, that the stock be retreating back to an area of
support, that the stock market be undergoing a period of weakness, and
that the option meet stringent requirements. Add it all together and you
get the Simplespread Strategy. Please
explain the "40% a Year" in the the title of your book? Are you
serious, especially since you've gone out of your way to emphasize that
the stock market's normal yearly gain is under 10%?
Good question. The 40% is the worthwhile goal. However, nothing is
for certain. We wouldn't even take bets that a meteorite won't hit us
tomorrow.
But, if you can find doable Simplespreads 4 times a year (every
3 months or so) and take 10% out of each one, then you have your 40%. The genius
of Simplespreading is that you're never in a panic about "missing out
on the next market rally or the next Bull Market." A simple rally from $20 to $22 (okay, let's say $23
just to cover commission and taxes) should
reward you with your 10%. Do it three more times in the year and you've
got your 40%. Simple, but certainly not assured. Stock
Splits: Should I buy into a
stock that is getting ready
to split?
Probably not. Since a stock
split (2 for 1, 3 for 2, 5
for 4, etc.) means your call
option will be altered (more
than 100 shares per option
contract) to correspond with
the altered stock, and that
most future option activity
will be in the new options
on the newly split stock, it
is best to pass up a stock
that is about to split. If
you can wait until the split
takes place, and the stock
and new options meet your
requirements, then go to
it...after the stock has
split. Your charts display several different
time periods. How much past history do you require to make a decision of
higher highs and higher lows?
As much as possible. We prefer monthly charts going back 10 years. This
presents an uncluttered landscape to look at, giving you a simple picture
of the direction of the stock as well as its support levels. If you use
weekly charts, require at least 5 years of data. You
advocate the use of out-of-the-money calls for your strategy. Why not sell
in-the-money calls on stocks that are resting for a short time, then
buying back the depreciating call when the stock is ready to rally again?
It's hard enough finding stocks with above average odds of increasing in
price. Your suggestion doubles the requirement by first buying a
stock that is "resting," then selling the appropriate call.
Additionally, now, you want to be able to exactly time the purchase (covering) of
the call just as the stock begins to resume its climb.
Let's keep it simple.
You should not get involved in a stock unless you believe firmly it is
ready to rally. Why else tie up capital? The only redeeming feature of
your suggestion is that you will have additional protection if the stock
declines due to the larger value of the in-the-money call you would sell. But
remember that you go
into the market for capital gain. The quicker the better. The longer
you're in the market, the greater risk (regardless of what the long-term
buy-and-hold people tell you about risk declining with a lengthening of
investment horizon. Ask that to the numerous holders of worthless stock
certificates and disbanded mutual funds).
No, we strongly advise to follow the 80 Rules
and sell the barely
out-of-the-money calls, seeking to capture a portion of the stock's
anticipated immediate rally.
Please explain
the difference between an "annualized" gain and an
"average" gain?
It is true that these two measurements are often confused. Let's say you make
100% in one year, then lose 50% the next. If you average it out, you're still
positive 50% for the two years. Right? [(100 - 50) / 2 = 25% per year.]
Wrong!
If you start with $10,000 and make 100%, at the end of the first year,
you've got $20,000. Now the second year you lose 50%...and voila, you're
back down to where you started = $10,000. What happened? You mistakenly
used "averaging" to figure out the returns. All too many
entities in the investment business do this type of
"accounting."
The realistic way to look at it is "annualized returns."
Formula for annualized gain: (1 + M - day - Gain) 365 / M But
don't ask us. We're not mathematicians. We use a computer program whereby
we just plug in the numbers. Texas Instruments and others make
hand-held calculators that will also do the job for you. Do
you use a stop-loss?
No. Because you are selling calls on stock you purchase, you already have
some built-in cushion. Let the call tell you what to do. You technicians
appear to disconnect fundamental financial facts from realistic
economic/financial assessment of the future. Do you really not differentiate
between a good company and a bad company?
Yes and no. We wholeheartedly believe that well-run companies will outperform
and out-survive poorly run companies. Our problem is that we admit
we are not smart enough to know the difference, especially when we aren't
sitting on the board of directors (and even that appears not to have been
enough lately here in Houston). Can
you get rich Simplespreading?
Does Simplespreading make you rich?
Just how much can you make Simplespreading?
With a stated goal of 40% a year, you're not going to get richer overnight
unless you start out rich. This is a program for the long haul. If you are
a "speculator" who desires to make it big and fast, then Simplespreading
is not for you. We attempt to help you to even out the hills and valleys
in your investment program over the course of your life. True,
compounding 40% (if you can attain that goal) will add up over time, but
never consider it your get-rich scheme. We are the turtles (not Richard
Dennis' Turtles, but turtles nonetheless); speculators
are the hares. If you're looking for excitement, then look
elsewhere. Too much
mathematics?
Not really. All of modern life has math in it. Simplespreading touches on
math only so much as is necessary to figure out whether your specific
goal in a single position approximates something close to a 40% annualized gain. I
like your concepts. Why not publish a weekly (or daily) rating on every
stock? That way, an investor could just look up the rankings and pick the
best one.
Thank you for your kind comment. The reason we do not publish rankings or
ratings is that Simplespreading
is a process of elimination that you do in your head as much as you do on
your computer. We believe it does you little good to do it for you. By
going through the process you come to understand why you made the trade
and also what you expect out of it. That is the only way to really learn
to take money out of Wall Street.
We
prefer to stand by the old adage "Give a man a fish and you feed him
for a day. Teach a man to fish and he'll learn
to feed himself for the rest of his life" or something like that. I've been told my
whole life that greed and fear rule the stock market. Please explain your
statement that "greed" is a bad rap.
Moralists like to brand stock market participants with the sin of
greed. However, a little research shows that the real problem is that investors lack a knowledge of
what is a reasonable expectation from the stock market. All too often when
you ask someone what they expect out of a particular stock, they talk
about "hitting a home run," "making a
killing," or "striking it rich." Nowhere in these
answers is any realistic evaluation of the situation - just some
pie-in-the-sky dreams of wonderful things to come because that is the
media's message. Then when
investors lose money on a stock that plummets back to earth after a meteoric
rise, the media blames the investors' losses on the investor's own greed (evidently
because they were trying to squeeze that last cent of profit out of it),
and the losers accept the admonishment as their just punishment.
The more correct answer is that since you probably don't know what the
stock market normally returns over the long term, you cannot possible know
when to take a profit and be happy. It's not your greed that gets you in
trouble, it's your lack of knowledge of what is a realistic return. So,
don't punish yourself for being greedy, scold yourself for not doing your
homework.
If you didn't know better,
you might go out on a
baseball diamond, make an
out every 2 out of 3 times
at bat, and think yourself a
failure. If you'd checked
history, you find out that a
.333 batting average would
put you in the Hall of Fame.
What is your long-term forecast for the stock market?
We have none. Simplespreading looks for pockets of opportunities in all
types of markets. We expect the market to fluctuate, experiencing both
dramatic rallies and severe selloffs. The rest of the time will be spent
moving boringly sideways. An investor must be a person for all seasons. Learn the
strategy, then you will be ready when the opportunities present themselves.
The rest of the time, sit back and enjoy the show. Why do you emphasize
percentage profits over dollar profits? A profit is a profit, isn't
it?
A profit goal in dollars frequently obliterates the return on your
investment. To achieve a goal of 40% a year, you must concentrate on
percentage returns, not dollars. All too often, if you start looking only
at the dollar gain, you lose sight of the percentage gain and eventually
lose site of your annualized goal, getting caught up in the emotional
calculation of dollar bills. Are
you bullish or bearish? Why? (2nd attempt)
This is a question that comes up regularly so we'll try to answer everybody
at one time. Simplespreading leaves us "undirectional." We know
the market will fluctuate. It will soar; it will crash, it will sit. The big losers
will always be the die-hards - those who fervently believe that they see
the future and bet the bankroll on it. Our problem with both the perennial bulls and
perennial bears is that the bulls refuse to understand the way the free
market works and the bears refuse to understand the way the free market
works. The bulls get caught up in one of these "this time it's
different" modes while the bears don't give human ingenuity enough
credit to take precautionary measures when faced with a forecast of bad things that are supposedly about to
happen. Just keep your powder dry.
Please discuss selling
calls "naked."
With the advent of picture phones, we recommend against it (unless you're
a centerfold). Ops, sorry for the attempt at humor. Nothing to discuss
really. We don't recommend it unless you're a hedge fund
hedging something else. Needless to say, selling calls naked (without
owning the underlying stock) does not enter into the concept of Simplespreading.
First you advise to
disregard the news, then you advise us to read the Wall Street Journal and
other publications. Please explain.
This is not contradictory. As Robert Mckee, the eminent screenwriting teacher says, "first learn the basics, then you can
ignore them, twist them, or use them however you want. But first, learn
them."
In the stock market, this would be translated "first learn the
financial news game, then learn how to block it out." You have to be
able to know what to disregard before you can disregard it because you
will never escape "the news."
Why are you teaching
Simplespreading instead of just using it yourself?
We feel that Simplespreading is a vast improvement on most
other theories of
investing, and we are intent on spreading the gospel. It is in the American's
blood to "spread the word" about anything that makes life
easier, better, or longer. Our economic history proves that when you
share your discoveries and innovations with others, not only are they
better off, so are you. We're working to illuminate a better way of investing for the
millions of investors who want and need better returns from their
investments. When the job is done, we'll return to private investing.
Please address the buying
of options.
Easy answer: Don't do it. Just as the option sellers have 2+ possibilities out
of 3 on their side for making a profit, the option buyers have 2+ possibilities out of 3 for
suffering a loss. Bad odds. Leave it for the speculators and be glad they're
buying your wares.
What is your opinion of the
analyst ***************?
This is a question that comes up frequently. We refrain from giving
opinions on other stock market analysts, commentators, and personalities.
What we do differ strongly with is the analyst who calls himself/herself a
"technician" then rolls out 25 reasons (all fundamental in
nature) why such-and-such is going to happen. A technician is supposed to
concentrate on actual stock market supply and demand as evidenced by daily
trading. If the fundamentals were of any consequence, they would be
reflected in the stock activity. All too often we see someone proclaiming
that XYZ stock "has a good base and has broken out of its congestion
area and looks good." Then the comments disintegrate into the lines of
"Plus the company has a strong balance sheet, sales are rising, and
the stock is under priced compared to its competitors." Huh? Charts
are intimidating. Any way around having to read the tea leaves?
No. A company is a complicated entity. It's a maze of contracts, ideas,
slogans, trademarks, business relationships, real estate, personnel,
patents, hope, professional advice, goodwill, egos, reputation, products,
sales, etc.
Trying to ascertain what the mishmash is worth at any one moment is
impossible...and fruitless. What you're interested in is what its value
could be sometime in the future. Luckily for us, the charts give us a
better take on the future than anything else available. Support &
resistance and relative strength are the two best gauges on how a stock
will perform over the immediate future. And the immediate future is what
you're going to be facing when you get up tomorrow.
I
don't have the necessary capital to diversity into a number of stocks.
Would you support the idea of using LEAPS in place of owning stocks on
which to selling covered calls?
You're forgetting the first part of Simplespread
- simple. We can empathize with you about lack of capital. But by
substituting LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities, or simply
long-term calls, much like warrants) you can muck up the works. Several
objections come immediately to mind: no dividends, paying a premium over
the cost of the stock (true, the LEAPS will be cheaper than the stock),
the LEAPS will be less liquid than the stock, confusion and complications
if the stock is a take-over candidate, the problem of exercise of the
short call (which you want to happen...the sooner the better), a
volatility shift could adversely affect your option-option relationship,
etc.
Our continued suggestion is to keep to the program. If you get off
into the more exotic combinations (and believe us, there are practically
no limits on investors' creativity here), you can easily lose sight of
original intent, goals, and method of operation. Sorry, but we don't
recommend it. Your earlier book used and
recommended point and figure charts. Why have you switched to bar charts?
Recent computer technology allows much more data to be squeezed onto a
monitor of bar charts than it does point and figure charts. Plus there are
many times more companies offering bar charting services with very
competitive rates compared to the point and figure services. We still
consider point and figure charting superior to bar charting when it come
to identifying support and resistance, however, what is gained there does
not match what is gained with bar charting in historical perspective. True, you have to look harder
to discern support areas on bar charts, but it can be done. We might add
that www.StockCharts.com incorporates point and figure charting along with
its bar chart service. What
is your recommendation when you say "Go to cash?"
We expect there will be many weeks that you sit on the sidelines waiting
for a good Simplespreading situation
to come along. During this time, brokerage firms offer any number of
interest-bearing devices such as money markets in which to park funds. Or you can have them
swept into Treasury Bills or other similar instruments. The whole idea of
being in "cash" is to protect yourself from loss of principle
while you wait. Remember, only by selling "high" (and
stockpiling your cash) can you be ready to buy "low." What
is your opinion of XYZ stock? (3rd attempt)
The most fascinating aspect of the teaching side of the investment business is the continual request for someone else's opinion of a specific stock.
The higher profile the person has, the greater the weight of the opinion. More
often than not, we, here, have come to the conclusion that people are simply
seeking reaffirmation of their earlier decisions. Collective hand
holding, if you will. The Simplespread Strategy, from the
git-go, was created in order for individual investors to take control not
only of their investment funds but also the decision-making aspects of
their investment philosophy. One must understand that an investment is
something you buy from another party with the intent of it increasing in
value. That means at some future point in time, somebody will be happy and
somebody may not be so happy.
The bottom line answer of this question is that since no one knows the
future, your opinion is just as good as ours. Profits are made
by buying shares of stock that others don't want (or else they wouldn't
sell them to you) and then selling those
shares at a higher price to people who do now want them. Common
sense tells you that both parties cannot always be right. We do not mean
to imply that the stock market is always a sum-zero game, but one must be
aware that difference of opinion is the basic ingredient of humanity. As
Churchill (or somebody before him) said, "When two people agree, one of them
isn't thinking."
Learn the strategy, then depend upon your own mind and wits. It's your
life to live. You are smarter than you think.
I can't find any setups.
How often should I be able to find something that meets your requirements?
The easy answer is that if the market is not offering anything, then sit
and wait. Eventually, things will line up. The market cannot be forced
into compliance. Your use of the term "setups" indicates that
you may be a short term trader. Please be aware that Simplespreading
is not a trading philosophy. We look for a specific set of circumstances
to occur, then act to take advantage of an odds-on possibility. If we are
right, the market will automatically take us out of our position and we
will be rewarded for our work with a profit. We are not "in and out"
traders.
I
see good patterns that would be applicable to Simplespreading,
but the stocks don't have options listed on them. Is the option really necessary?
YES! The call option sets the time and profit goal. With only about 1 in 5
stocks being optionable (having options available to trade on any of the
exchanges), it is quite normal to find plenty of stocks that look good but
have no options. That's why the elimination of all non-optionable stocks
is #2 in the elimination process.
If you buy into a
"good-looking stock" but don't sell the corresponding call
option, then you've lost the discipline needed to be a winning investor.
Without stated and acknowledged goals, you're just betting that your own
"feel" for the stock will lead you to make the right decision on
when to sell...or when to take additional measures in the face of possible
losses. Stick with the option. It's the best deal Wall Street ever gave
you.
What is your opinion of XYZ
software/website/program/spiel?
We list the tools of the trade that we are familiar with and
have used extensively. That certainly does not preclude whatever you find
useful on your own. Also, please note that during our marketing phase here
at the Simplespread Institute, the
author has abandoned ALL personal
investing and thus will probably miss new services that become available.
Bottom line, experimentation is the basis of all progress. Does it make
sense? Can you mold it into your method of operation? Does it/they have a
history of knowing what they are promoting or talking about? As in all
transactions, be sure of what you are getting yourself into. As it is
written in Desiderata, "Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is
full of trickery."
You recommend visiting
bearish advisory services but fail to mention anything about bullish
advisory services. Why?
Simplespreading has a bullish
bias. You are buying stocks that you expect to rise in value. Humanity is an
optimistic species. Nobody needs to be sold the bullish scenario. It's part
of our daily lives. We expect to be alive tomorrow. Companies are
optimistic that their products will sell well and satisfy demand.
Employees are optimistic their company and job will grow. Therefore, you
need only to be constantly reminded of the bearish scenario, of what you
should be afraid of, of what can go wrong. The bears are thought provokers
and make interesting reading. Check them out, and remember, frequently,
they are right.
Why do you define support
and resistance so narrowly? Others analysts use a much wider range of
channels, trendlines, double tops/bottoms, etc.
You are correct that the term "support and resistance" can
encompass a multitude of definitions. However, from my experience trading
on the floors of two exchanges, real people make real decisions the way I
have outlined them in Rule #51. The methods you describe above are
legitimate when you look at a chart and interpret past history, but that
is data-fitting, in our opinion. People buy at certain points for reasons
that make sense. Stick by the Rule.
What is your opinion of
ETFs?
Exchange Traded Funds are baskets of stocks representing particular
segments of the market - Energy, Semiconductors, the Japanese stock
market. Because of their low volatility, we would not normally consider them for Simplespreading.
We recently attended a
seminar given by William O'Neil. During the talk he said something to the
effect that your goal shouldn't be to be right but to make big money when
you were right. Why appear to disagree?
I have a deep and abiding respect for Mr. O'Neil and for what he has
contributed to the financial world. And I, too, have attended his seminars
and have also visited his headquarters in Los Angeles, delivering them a copy
of my first book when it was published in the 1980s. Referring to the
above statement, I think you misunderstood him. If I'm not mistaken, I
believe his philosophy runs along the line more of not only should you be
right but when you are right you should cash in big. He means that, much
like Peter Lynch, when you find a winner, ride it for as long as you
can. In Lynch's words - a "ten-bagger."
I would modify that to the degree that because the big winners don't
come along that often, investors would be better served by making lots of
smaller profits, which by logic and statistics, are much more numerous. It's
easier on the nerves and healthier for the pocketbook too.
What was the genesis for stock selection in Simplespreading?
Growth in the economy regularly moves from one business sector to another
as demand rises, is met by supply, and is satisfied (the business cycle). Thus, some years it's
airlines and hotels, then it's cement and housing, then it's medical
instruments and drugs, then it's gold and copper, then it's food and soft
drinks, then it semiconductors
and computers, then it retail outlets and media. While profits follow the
business cycle, stocks anticipate the business cycle.
The implication here is that a sector's stocks should benefit or be hurt
by the same macroeconomic factors, and this is borne out in stock
movement. If you check where the most money is made each year in the stock
market you will see that stocks move in packs - in industry groups - and
those groups can be ranked in order of price performance daily, weekly,
monthly, yearly, etc.
2003 was a very good year with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index
rallying some 26%. But if you had really wanted to make good money, you would
have owned Internet Information Providers which were up 143%, or Sporting
Goods Stores which were up 130%, or Medical Practitioners which were up
127%.
It now becomes obvious that to do well in the stock market, you have to be
in the right industries or groups. The easy way to do this is simply track
relative strength rankings on a rolling 6-month basis and concentrate all your
funds in the top performing industries. You don't care if the market is
rallying or declining, whether the dollar is rising or falling, whether
interest rates are going up or down. All you care about is which stocks are
leading the pack. And it's that simple.
***Speaking of "genesis," we take no credit for any original
innovations or concepts. Simplespreading
is simply a melding together of several of Wall Street's time-tested
truisms. We borrow from the best and forget the rest.
I've heard options are
dangerous and not a good investment. It's pure speculation.
You didn't mention whether you were referring to buying or selling
options, so we'll assume you're talking about buying options. An option
buyer can easily lose 100% of the investment and this strategy has been
the cause of many big losses and many big law suits. Naked option selling
has also resulted in huge losses and bigger lawsuits. A friend of mine
lost $54 million during the crash of '87 by selling puts. However, option
writing, which is what Simplespreading is, can be safer than plain old
stock buying. It is so conservative that it is even approved for your
IRAs, 401(k)s, and other retirement plans.
Will you recommend a
brokerage firm/money manager which we can set up an account with?
We do not recommend either brokerage firms or brokers/money
managers/financial consultants. The
object of The Simplespread Institute
is to teach individual investors to manage their own money using the best
deal Wall Street ever gave them. We hope we have done a good enough job
whereby you not only can, but also want to do it yourself.
If you want someone else to manage your money, it is up to you. Whether a
firm or a professional money manager meets your requirements to handle
your account is also up to you. Remember that a brokerage firm makes money
from transaction costs and a money manager gets a fee usually based on the
amount of money managed. Both are in business to make a profit...which is
good. Without profits we'd all be back in the caves searching for some dry
kindling. Just make sure that their goals and your goals coincide to
benefit you. You are the customer. And you are the boss. They exist to
serve you.
We do not certify that anyone (public or private) is qualified to "Simplespread."
If the investment community approaches you with our philosophy as the
basis of their sales pitch, make sure they understand what they are doing
and that you agree with the way they will handle your account. Again, it
is your money; watch over it carefully.
If you recommend the strongest stocks and industries, does that carry
over into mutual funds?
No.
(A) We don't like mutual funds. Period. We believe you can do much better
on your own.
Additionally, the "strongest stocks'" theories rest on the
business cycle. We will never ague that business success doesn't usually
translate into stock success at one time or the other. We've just never found anybody or anything that had a
very good track record predicting business/economic success consistently.
(B) However, the "strongest mutual
fund" theories rest on...not much. Superior performance by a mutual fund can be the result of luck,
skill, or a combination of both. Frequently, a mutual fund with a
specialization (sector, allocation, value, dividend, foreign, growth, a star
stockpicker, etc.) zooms to the top of the performance ratings based on
the market's particular fad over the past year or two. Then, as time moves
on, that fad dies and the fund sinks to the bottom of the heap.
So, to answer the question, no, mutual fund performance doesn't carry over
from the "relative strength" stock philosophy.
I was just referred by a friend to a website that advertises up to 25%
a month writing calls. Is that legitimate?
As far as legitimacy goes, we can't say. However, during the big run up of
1998-2000, many websites sprang into life recommending the purchase of cheap
BUT volatile internet stocks which did have hefty call premiums available
to sell. All to often, though, those "hot" (flash-in-the-pan)
stocks with the big option premiums failed to survive over the next 12
months, so the big option premiums didn't come close to making up for the
stock loss.
Here at The Simplespread Institute
we prefer the long-range perspective on the business of writing calls, and
expect to see our clients work in stocks which will be here tomorrow.
Usually, when the advertisements are too good to be true, they are too
good to be true. I
know the market is fixed. I don't believe that fundamental or technical
analysis can change the fact that insiders (?) unload overpriced stock on
unsuspecting investors. Are you part of the fix?
Wow! Let's begin by defining "insiders" which our questioner did
not do. Insiders can be company officers, or Wall Street firms, or private
pools who invest heavily in a particular stock. We agree, from
experience, that everyone involved in the investment business looks our
for themselves. However, we believe (using his word) that technical
analysis as proscribed by The Simplespread
Strategy lays bare any (real or imagined) manipulation.
Sure, it's easy to blame "them" for losses, but did you do
everything to make sure the odds of profitability were on your side? There
is no free lunch...anywhere. Not in the supermarket, not at the gas
station, not in the doctor's office, not on the ball field, not in your
own line of work. Nowhere.
If you choose to invest in the stock market, you should know that
everybody is there to make a profit, just like you are. Why else would
anyone take the time or the risk?
We expect the recent bubble and subsequent bursting exposed much of what
your anger is about. Many "insiders" have been fired, fined, and
jailed, with more trials to continue for the foreseeable future. But the
game will still be played, and please remember that if we don't
"finance" our requirements for civilization, then progress has
to wait on savings, and savings are slower than molasses in winter.
You'll die before that new medical advancement is invented if the
innovators can't get "financing."
You just have to remember finance is a mental game that requires a mixture
of imagination, inspiration, and trust. There will always be those who
take advantage of their position (in every field of endeavor)...and there
will always be the legal retribution that results from malfeasance.
No, we are not part of what you call the "fix." What we are is
one of the best ways to make sure you don't get taken to the cleaners
through your own bad decisions.
What percentage of my money
should I commit to the The Simplespread
Strategy?
We are concerned only with your stock market money; not your bond money,
real estate money, cash, etc. And we are concerned only with that part of
your stock market money that you want to use to significantly increase
your assets. This is your second job, your
make-more-money-so-I-can-invest-it-elsewhere money. This is your meat
& potatoes account. Essentially, Simplespreading
should be the creator of assets that you then distribute into other classes
of investments. And only you can determine how much of your money you want
to use to make more money. How
will inflation/deflation affect your theories of Simplespreading?
Not at all. We expect the market to rise and fall throughout the rest of
our lives...as it always has. The environments you mention, inflation or deflation,
are simply "causes of the day" for trading to take place, like
the body count in Vietnam, the money supply in the 1970s, interest rates,
unemployment rates, the oil supply, or the new, new thing. Buyers think it
is bullish; sellers think it is bearish. We don't know. We let the charts
do the talking. None of us are smart enough to know.
Example: Let's say we know inflation will become rampant. Will stocks
collapse? Well, maybe. And maybe not. It is the fighting of inflation
(raising of interest rates) that hurts stocks. Maybe we will have hyperinflation. Maybe stocks will become
the only way to stay ahead of the game. Or, maybe stocks will be the
victim of inflation. It all depends on what monetary/political officials
and investors do. Then their actions affect investors whose actions are
borne out in the charts. And profit is made by selling at a higher price
than buying. It's that simple, and it can't get any simpler than that.
If a stock I bought about
18 months ago is up 200% and I want to lock in my gain today but push the
taxes into next year, can I buy puts without any taxable consequences?
As much as we'd like to help, we absolutely do not comment on tax
questions for several reasons: (1) Tax law AND tax law interpretation
change frequently (through legislation, court decisions, memorandums,
etc.) and that is not our specialty. (2) Your understanding of your
situation may not be totally correct, and therefore our comments might
miss the mark of what you are really searching for. (3) We are not
accountants, and are not qualified to advise anyone on their personal tax
questions. We advise you to seek out the help of a good accountant or
lawyer.
I'm very concerned about
the health of the stock market. If we experience another downdraft,
wouldn't I better off getting out of the stock market all together?
We agree with your concerns. As a matter of fact, we are always
concerned about downdrafts. But the good thing about Simplespreading
is that the cream always rises to the top. Even in market selloffs,
panics, and extended bear markets, strong stocks usually put in a good
performance. Gold stocks were a haven in 2001. REITs, auto parts, and some
finance stocks provided shelter also during the recent (2000-2002)
weakness. The problem of "getting out of the market all
together" is the mental decision you have to make. If you convince
yourself to get out, then you have to convince yourself that the worst is
over and it's safe to get back in at some future time. Few people have
such mental dexterity. We prefer to see the market as a series of rallies
and declines. The declines are for buying; the rallies are for selling. We
welcome both because they are profit opportunities.
You talk a lot about the
"psychology" of the market, or of the investor. What exactly
does that mean?
There are two ways to approach investing: 1) Determine what something is
worth; if it is "under valued," buy it and wait until it becomes
"fully valued," or 2) Psyche out what investors are doing.
Realize that it is their buying and selling that moves securities prices,
then ascertain where their actions (rational and irrational) will push
those prices.
Okay, that requires some explanation. Most of Wall Street is bent of
finding "value." Why? Because it's the easiest concept to sell
to investors. It's a story, and everybody loves a story. Anybody can make
up a good story, from the company itself, to the analyst, to the
broker/salesman. A good story is the best defense when things don't work
out. "Management said the XL63 Gizmo would double the efficiency of
earlier versions. The market for such an improvement can only be estimated
to be in the billions. BUY!"
The only problem here is that a good story is nothing more than a good
story. Whether the story produces profits for the investor is determined
by whether other investors buy the story. How do you monitor that? By
watching the buying and selling patterns investors make as the news of the
day/week/month comes and goes.
Investors travel in herds. One of the first lessons I learned in the
trading pits was that there were those who got caught up in the excitement
(frenzy) of the moment, irrationally chasing prices as they spiraled one
way or the other, then spent the next few hours scratching their heads
over what they'd just done when the excitement died down. On the other
hand, there where
those who always kept their heads, coolly keeping rein on their moods and
their actions. You can guess who survived and who bombed out.
The bottom line of all this is that "value" means little when it
comes to investing, although most of Wall Street adheres to it's siren
song because of the ease of the explanation listed above. But time
changes, and with it goes value. What's considered de rigueur today
will change tomorrow. Transportation - the foot, the wheel, the horse,
the cart, the carriage, the automobile, the train, the plane, the
spaceship...all used for the same purpose, but certainly different in
their value to the human race through time.
The only consistent way to approach investing in the stock market is to
monitor what other investors are doing, and buy today what they will later
buy from you at higher prices tomorrow. You do that by studying the
psychology of the moment. Learn that investors still run in herds. Learn
that they go through periods of mania, then periods of panic.
When you learn why investors buy and where they buy and how they buy, then
you can fashion a strategy around these behavioral characteristics. That's
what The Simplespread Strategy
does. It bases its rules on anticipated investor actions as evidenced by
how investors acted in the past. The one thing that doesn't change over
time is the way we human beings think. The hardware changes but the
software remains the same.
Learn to understand investor behavior and you will always have a leg up on
the competition. Psyche them out.
Please explain your use of
"likelihood of profit" that turns up frequently in your
material.
It is true that we use the term "likelihood" rather than
something more definite. The stock market is fraught with risk of losing
money. Stocks represent partial ownership in companies engaged in the
business of providing you with products or services that you may or may
not choose to use tomorrow. If it isn't a monopoly protected by government
regulations, then every company listed is susceptible to immediate
reversal of fortune and ultimate demise. Stock certificates can and do become worthless. Total loss of investment monies. Zap. Zippo. Zilch.
So, when we discuss investing, we do with a weary eye that has seen
everything happen that could possibly happen. Few things surprise us.
Companies are regularly adversely affected by suppliers cutting them off,
employees walking out, customers changing their wants, government
regulators putting them out of business, bankers calling in their loans,
poor management, obsolesce, competitors taking their clients, and simply
running out of good ideas.
The entrepreneur/business person is the hero of any era and the bulwark of
any society. But the odds of a successful enterprise overcoming the above
factors and remaining in business for the long term...well, history hasn't
been kind to such assertions.
Therefore, when we discuss stocks, we can, at best, use the term
"likelihood" because there isn't anything for sure in this
world. Going out of our way to alert you to this possibility is our way of
being honest with you.
I can find stocks in the
right industries which are ripe for buying but the option parameters you
advise don't add up. Should I go ahead and forget the guidelines?
There are approximately 2500 stocks with options. That changes all the
time, but let's call it somewhere just north of 2000. It is quite
conceivable that at any one time, absolutely no stocks meet all the
guidelines. Yes, that may be hard to believe. And what does that say to
you? "Sit on the sidelines and wait for better opportunities."
Option pricing depends on a lot of factors, one of which is implied
volatility which currently (March, 2004) is low. Historically speaking,
volatility is back to where it was in the mid-1990s. Another factor
mitigating against higher option pricing is rock-bottom interest rates.
But this is all part of the game- and can change tomorrow. That's why it's
so important to learn one strategy and stick with it through thick and
thin. All today's market is telling you is that it's tougher to find
"expensive," "meaty," "full-of-air" calls
out there to sell. Wait. Shortly, things will pop up on your screen and
you'll be ready to take advantage of them. They always do. Keep your
powder dry.
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