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FAQ

In the interests of clarity and brevity, the following questions are compilations of questions that have come to us  seeking an explanation of the Simplespread Strategy. We have combined subjects that are similar in nature, rewording them to encompass the largest span of inquiry. We welcome your query and will try to answer it to the best of our ability.

Why don't you offer a model portfolio?
Anyone seeking to learn how to take money out of Wall Street must be persuaded on the basis of logical argument and understanding of basic concepts rather than on any record of "past performance." We put no credence on "track record," - neither a portfolio manager's nor a "system." All too often the "hot hand" is merely  someone or something being in the right place at the right time, and not repeatable. 
We strive for consistency in thought and action. The environment is always changing but the principles stay the same. As numerous examples in these pages show, Simplespreads were available frequently over any time period you want to choose. Whether you, as an investor, would have been able financially or intellectually to take advantage of them is pure conjecture. We do not believe that model portfolios are a good concept in theory, and therefore continue to shy away from them. 

Most options sites emphasize the selling of "overpriced" options. However, your work omits mention of any "overpriced-underpriced" considerations. Explain.
You are correct that Simplespreading puts its main emphasis on the stock rather than the call option. That is because your profit or loss will depend primarily on what the stock does rather than on the original value of the call. A particularly overpriced option doesn't have anything to do with whether the stock is in a leading industry group or that the stock is at an area of support.
We would add that when presented with the choice of two similar stocks, one with an "expensive" option and one with a "cheap" option, we'd certainly go with selling the expensive one. The window of opportunity opens and closes. If you find it and are in a position of taking advantage of it, go for it. But if you miss it, just relax. Another opportunity will come along soon. 

You mix the terms Simplespreading and covered options writing and Buy/Writing frequently. Isn't your "Simplespreading" the same as covered options writing?
No. Covered options writing or Buy/Writing is the singular act of selling call options on stocks you buy (or already own). Simplespreading adds the requirements that the stock/option combination be initiated simultaneously, that the stock be in a strong industry, that the stock be a strong stock itself, that the stock be retreating back to an area of support, that the stock market be undergoing a period of weakness, and that the option meet stringent requirements. Add it all together and you get the Simplespread Strategy

Please explain the "40% a Year" in the the title of your book? Are you serious, especially since you've gone out of your way to emphasize that the stock market's normal yearly gain is under 10%?
Good question. The 40% is the worthwhile goal. However, nothing is for certain. We wouldn't even take bets that a meteorite won't hit us tomorrow. 
But, if you can find doable Simplespreads 4 times a year (every 3 months or so) and take 10% out of each one, then you have your 40%. The genius of Simplespreading is that you're never in a panic about "missing out on the next market rally or the next Bull Market." A simple rally from $20 to $22 (okay, let's say $23 just to cover commission and taxes) should reward you with your 10%. Do it three more times in the year and you've got your 40%. Simple, but certainly not assured.

Stock Splits: Should I buy into a stock that is getting ready to split?
Probably not. Since a stock split (2 for 1, 3 for 2, 5 for 4, etc.) means your call option will be altered (more than 100 shares per option contract) to correspond with the altered stock, and that most future option activity will be in the new options on the newly split stock, it is best to pass up a stock that is about to split. If you can wait until the split takes place, and the stock and new options meet your requirements, then go to it...after the stock has split.

Your charts display several different time periods. How much past history do you require to make a decision of higher highs and higher lows?
As much as possible. We prefer monthly charts going back 10 years. This presents an uncluttered landscape to look at, giving you a simple picture of the direction of the stock as well as its support levels. If you use weekly charts, require at least 5 years of data.

You advocate the use of out-of-the-money calls for your strategy. Why not sell in-the-money calls on stocks that are resting for a short time, then buying back the depreciating call when the stock is ready to rally again?
It's hard enough finding stocks with above average odds of increasing in price. Your suggestion doubles the requirement by first buying a stock that is "resting," then selling the appropriate call. Additionally, now, you want to be able to exactly time the purchase (covering) of the call just as the stock begins to resume its climb. 
Let's keep it simple.
You should not get involved in a stock unless you believe firmly it is ready to rally. Why else tie up capital? The only redeeming feature of your suggestion is that you will have additional protection if the stock declines due to the larger value of the in-the-money call you would sell. But remember that you go into the market for capital gain. The quicker the better. The longer you're in the market, the greater risk (regardless of what the long-term buy-and-hold people tell you about risk declining with a lengthening of investment horizon. Ask that to the numerous holders of worthless stock certificates and disbanded mutual funds). 
No, we strongly advise to follow the 80 Rules and sell the barely out-of-the-money calls, seeking to capture a portion of the stock's anticipated immediate rally.

Please explain the difference between an "annualized" gain and an "average" gain?
It is true that these two measurements are often confused. Let's say you make 100% in one year, then lose 50% the next. If you average it out, you're still positive 50% for the two years. Right? [(100 - 50) / 2 = 25% per year.]    Wrong!                                                                       
If you start with $10,000 and make 100%, at the end of the first year, you've got $20,000. Now the second year you lose 50%...and voila, you're back down to where you started = $10,000. What happened? You mistakenly used "averaging" to figure out the returns. All too many entities in the investment business do this type of "accounting."
The realistic way to look at it is "annualized returns."
                                      
Formula for annualized gain: (1 + M - day - Gain) 365 / M

But don't ask us. We're not mathematicians. We use a computer program whereby we just plug in the numbers. Texas Instruments and others make hand-held calculators that will also do the job for you.

Do you use a stop-loss?
No. Because you are selling calls on stock you purchase, you already have some built-in cushion. Let the call tell you what to do.

You technicians appear to disconnect fundamental financial facts from realistic economic/financial assessment of the future. Do you really not differentiate between a good company and a bad company?
Yes and no. We wholeheartedly believe that well-run companies will outperform and out-survive poorly run companies. Our problem is that we admit we are not smart enough to know the difference, especially when we aren't sitting on the board of directors (and even that appears not to have been enough lately here in Houston). 

Can you get rich Simplespreading?
Does Simplespreading make you rich?
Just how much can you make Simplespreading?

With a stated goal of 40% a year, you're not going to get richer overnight unless you start out rich. This is a program for the long haul. If you are a "speculator" who desires to make it big and fast, then Simplespreading is not for you. We attempt to help you to even out the hills and valleys in your investment program over the course of your life.  True, compounding 40% (if you can attain that goal) will add up over time, but never consider it your get-rich scheme. We are the turtles (not Richard Dennis' Turtles, but turtles nonetheless); speculators are the hares.  If you're looking for excitement, then look elsewhere.

Too much mathematics?
Not really. All of modern life has math in it. Simplespreading touches on math only so much as is necessary to figure out whether your specific goal in a single position approximates something close to a 40% annualized gain.

I like your concepts. Why not publish a weekly (or daily) rating on every stock? That way, an investor could just look up the rankings and pick the best one.
Thank you for your kind comment. The reason we do not publish rankings or ratings is that Simplespreading is a process of elimination that you do in your head as much as you do on your computer. We believe it does you little good to do it for you. By going through the process you come to understand why you made the trade and also what you expect out of it. That is the only way to really learn to take money out of Wall Street.
We prefer to stand by the old adage "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and he'll learn to feed himself for the rest of his life" or something like that.

I've been told my whole life that greed and fear rule the stock market. Please explain your statement that "greed" is a bad rap.
Moralists like to brand stock market participants with the sin of greed. However, a little research shows that the real problem is that investors lack a knowledge of what is a reasonable expectation from the stock market. All too often when you ask someone what they expect out of a particular stock, they talk about "hitting a home run,"  "making a killing," or "striking it rich."  Nowhere in these answers is any realistic evaluation of the situation - just some pie-in-the-sky dreams of wonderful things to come because that is the media's message.  Then when investors lose money on a stock that plummets back to earth after a meteoric rise, the media blames the investors' losses on the investor's own greed (evidently because they were trying to squeeze that last cent of profit out of it), and the losers accept the admonishment as their just punishment. 
The more correct answer is that since you probably don't know what the stock market normally returns over the long term, you cannot possible know when to take a profit and be happy. It's not your greed that gets you in trouble, it's your lack of knowledge of what is a realistic return. So, don't punish yourself for being greedy, scold yourself for not doing your homework.
If you didn't know better, you might go out on a baseball diamond, make an out every 2 out of 3 times at bat, and think yourself a failure. If you'd checked history, you find out that a .333 batting average would put you in the Hall of Fame.

What is your long-term forecast for the stock market?
We have none. Simplespreading looks for pockets of opportunities in all types of markets. We expect the market to fluctuate, experiencing both dramatic rallies and severe selloffs. The rest of the time will be spent moving boringly sideways. An investor must be a person for all seasons. Learn the strategy, then you will be ready when the opportunities present themselves. The rest of the time, sit back and enjoy the show.

Why do you emphasize percentage  profits over dollar profits? A profit is a profit, isn't it?
A profit goal in dollars frequently obliterates the return on your investment. To achieve a goal of 40% a year, you must concentrate on percentage returns, not dollars. All too often, if you start looking only at the dollar gain, you lose sight of the percentage gain and eventually lose site of your annualized goal, getting caught up in the emotional calculation of dollar bills.

Are you bullish or bearish? Why? (2nd attempt)
This is a question that comes up regularly so we'll try to answer everybody at one time. Simplespreading leaves us "undirectional." We know the market will fluctuate. It will soar; it will crash, it will sit. The big losers will always be the die-hards - those who fervently believe that they see the future and bet the bankroll on it. Our problem with both the perennial bulls and perennial bears is that the bulls refuse to understand the way the free market works and the bears refuse to understand the way the free market works. The bulls get caught up in one of these "this time it's different" modes while the bears don't give human ingenuity enough credit to take precautionary measures when faced with a forecast of bad things that are supposedly about to happen. Just keep your powder dry.

Please discuss selling calls "naked."
With the advent of picture phones, we recommend against it (unless you're a centerfold). Ops, sorry for the attempt at humor. Nothing to discuss really. We don't recommend it unless you're a hedge fund hedging something else. Needless to say, selling calls naked (without owning the underlying stock) does not enter into the concept of Simplespreading.

First you advise to disregard the news, then you advise us to read the Wall Street Journal and other publications. Please explain.
This is not contradictory. As Robert Mckee, the eminent screenwriting teacher says, "first learn the basics, then you can ignore them, twist them, or use them however you want. But first, learn them."
In the stock market, this would be translated "first learn the financial news game, then learn how to block it out." You have to be able to know what to disregard before you can disregard it because you will never escape "the news."

Why are you teaching Simplespreading instead of just using it yourself?
We feel that Simplespreading is a vast improvement on most other theories of investing, and we are intent on spreading the gospel. It is in the American's blood to "spread the word" about anything that makes life easier, better, or longer. Our economic history proves that when you share your discoveries and innovations with others, not only are they better off, so are you. We're working to illuminate a better way of investing for the millions of investors who want and need better returns from their investments. When the job is done, we'll return to private investing.

Please address the buying of options.
Easy answer: Don't do it. Just as the option sellers have 2+ possibilities out of 3 on their side for making a profit, the option buyers have 2+ possibilities out of 3 for suffering a loss. Bad odds. Leave it for the speculators and be glad they're buying your wares. 

What is your opinion of the analyst ***************?
This is a question that comes up frequently. We refrain from giving opinions on other stock market analysts, commentators, and personalities. What we do differ strongly with is the analyst who calls himself/herself a "technician" then rolls out 25 reasons (all fundamental in nature) why such-and-such is going to happen. A technician is supposed to concentrate on actual stock market supply and demand as evidenced by daily trading. If the fundamentals were of any consequence, they would be reflected in the stock activity. All too often we see someone proclaiming that XYZ stock "has a good base and has broken out of its congestion area and looks good." Then the comments disintegrate into the lines of "Plus the company has a strong balance sheet, sales are rising, and the stock is under priced compared to its competitors." Huh?

Charts are intimidating. Any way around having to read the tea leaves?
No. A company is a complicated entity. It's a maze of contracts, ideas, slogans, trademarks, business relationships, real estate, personnel, patents, hope, professional advice, goodwill, egos, reputation, products, sales, etc. Trying to ascertain what the mishmash is worth at any one moment is impossible...and fruitless. What you're interested in is what its value could be sometime in the future. Luckily for us, the charts give us a better take on the future than anything else available. Support & resistance and relative strength are the two best gauges on how a stock will perform over the immediate future. And the immediate future is what you're going to be facing when you get up tomorrow.

I don't have the necessary capital to diversity into a number of stocks. Would you support the idea of using LEAPS in place of owning stocks on which to selling covered calls?
You're forgetting the first part of Simplespread - simple. We can empathize with you about lack of capital. But by substituting LEAPS (Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities, or simply long-term calls, much like warrants) you can muck up the works. Several objections come immediately to mind: no dividends, paying a premium over the cost of the stock (true, the LEAPS will be cheaper than the stock), the LEAPS will be less liquid than the stock, confusion and complications if the stock is a take-over candidate, the problem of exercise of the short call (which you want to happen...the sooner the better), a volatility shift could adversely affect your option-option relationship, etc.
Our continued suggestion is to keep to  the program. If you get off into the more exotic combinations (and believe us, there are practically no limits on investors' creativity here), you can easily lose sight of original intent, goals, and method of operation. Sorry, but we don't recommend it.

Your earlier book used and recommended point and figure charts. Why have you switched to bar charts?
Recent computer technology allows much more data to be squeezed onto a monitor of bar charts than it does point and figure charts. Plus there are many times more companies offering bar charting services with very competitive rates compared to the point and figure services. We still consider point and figure charting superior to bar charting when it come to identifying support and resistance, however, what is gained there does not match what is gained with bar charting in historical perspective. True, you have to look harder to discern support areas on bar charts, but it can be done. We might add that www.StockCharts.com incorporates point and figure charting along with its bar chart service.

What is your recommendation when you say "Go to cash?" 
We expect there will be many weeks that you sit on the sidelines waiting for a good Simplespreading situation to come along. During this time, brokerage firms offer any number of interest-bearing devices such as money markets in which to park funds. Or you can have them swept into Treasury Bills or other similar instruments. The whole idea of being in "cash" is to protect yourself from loss of principle while you wait. Remember, only by selling "high" (and stockpiling your cash) can you be ready to buy "low."

What is your opinion of XYZ stock? (3rd attempt)
The most fascinating aspect of the teaching side of the investment business is the continual request for someone else's opinion of a specific stock. The higher profile the person has, the greater the weight of the opinion. More often than not, we, here, have come to the conclusion that people are simply seeking reaffirmation of their earlier decisions. Collective hand holding, if you will. The Simplespread Strategy, from the git-go, was created in order for individual investors to take control not only of their investment funds but also the decision-making aspects of their investment philosophy. One must understand that an investment is something you buy from another party with the intent of it increasing in value. That means at some future point in time, somebody will be happy and somebody may not be so happy.
The bottom line answer of this question is that since no one knows the future, your opinion is just as good as ours. Profits are made by buying shares of stock that others don't want (or else they wouldn't sell them to you) and then selling those shares at a higher price to people who do now want them. Common sense tells you that both parties cannot always be right. We do not mean to imply that the stock market is always a sum-zero game, but one must be aware that difference of opinion is the basic ingredient of humanity. As Churchill (or somebody before him) said, "When two people agree, one of them isn't thinking." 
Learn the strategy, then depend upon your own mind and wits. It's your life to live. You are smarter than you think.

I can't find any setups. How often should I be able to find something that meets your requirements?
The easy answer is that if the market is not offering anything, then sit and wait. Eventually, things will line up. The market cannot be forced into compliance. Your use of the term "setups" indicates that you may be a short term trader. Please be aware that Simplespreading is not a trading philosophy. We look for a specific set of circumstances to occur, then act to take advantage of an odds-on possibility. If we are right, the market will automatically take us out of our position and we will be rewarded for our work with a profit. We are not "in and out" traders.

I see good patterns that would be applicable to Simplespreading, but the stocks don't have options listed on them. Is the option really necessary?
YES! The call option sets the time and profit goal. With only about 1 in 5 stocks being optionable (having options available to trade on any of the exchanges), it is quite normal to find plenty of stocks that look good but have no options. That's why the elimination of all non-optionable stocks is #2 in the elimination process.
If you buy into a "good-looking stock" but don't sell the corresponding call option, then you've lost the discipline needed to be a winning investor. Without stated and acknowledged goals, you're just betting that your own "feel" for the stock will lead you to make the right decision on when to sell...or when to take additional measures in the face of possible losses. Stick with the option. It's the best deal Wall Street ever gave you.

What is your opinion of XYZ software/website/program/spiel?
We list the tools of the trade that we are familiar with and have used extensively. That certainly does not preclude whatever you find useful on your own. Also, please note that during our marketing phase here at the Simplespread Institute, the author has abandoned ALL personal investing and thus will probably miss new services that become available. 
Bottom line, experimentation is the basis of all progress. Does it make sense? Can you mold it into your method of operation? Does it/they have a history of knowing what they are promoting or talking about? As in all transactions, be sure of what you are getting yourself into. As it is written in Desiderata, "Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery." 

You recommend visiting bearish advisory services but fail to mention anything about bullish advisory services. Why? 
Simplespreading has a bullish bias. You are buying stocks that you expect to rise in value. Humanity is an optimistic species. Nobody needs to be sold the bullish scenario. It's part of our daily lives. We expect to be alive tomorrow. Companies are optimistic that their products will sell well and satisfy demand. Employees are optimistic their company and job will grow. Therefore, you need only to be constantly reminded of the bearish scenario, of what you should be afraid of, of what can go wrong. The bears are thought provokers and make interesting reading. Check them out, and remember, frequently, they are right.

Why do you define support and resistance so narrowly? Others analysts use a much wider range of channels, trendlines, double tops/bottoms, etc.
You are correct that the term "support and resistance" can encompass a multitude of definitions. However, from my experience trading on the floors of two exchanges, real people make real decisions the way I have outlined them in Rule #51. The methods you describe above are legitimate when you look at a chart and interpret past history, but that is data-fitting, in our opinion. People buy at certain points for reasons that make sense. Stick by the Rule.

What is your opinion of ETFs?
Exchange Traded Funds are baskets of stocks representing particular segments of the market - Energy, Semiconductors, the Japanese stock market. Because of their low volatility, we would not normally consider them for Simplespreading.

We recently attended a seminar given by William O'Neil. During the talk he said something to the effect that your goal shouldn't be to be right but to make big money when you were right. Why appear to disagree?
I have a deep and abiding respect for Mr. O'Neil and for what he has contributed to the financial world. And I, too, have attended his seminars and have also visited his headquarters in Los Angeles, delivering them a copy of my first book when it was published in the 1980s. Referring to the above statement, I think you misunderstood him. If I'm not mistaken, I believe his philosophy runs along the line more of not only should you be right but when you are right you should cash in big. He means that, much like Peter Lynch, when you find a winner, ride it for as long as you can. In Lynch's words - a "ten-bagger."
I would modify that to the degree that because the big winners don't come along that often, investors would be better served by making lots of smaller profits, which by logic and statistics, are much more numerous. It's easier on the nerves and healthier for the pocketbook too.

What was the genesis for stock selection in Simplespreading?
Growth in the economy regularly moves from one business sector to another as demand rises, is met by supply, and is satisfied (the business cycle). Thus, some years it's airlines and hotels, then it's cement and housing, then it's medical instruments and drugs, then it's gold and copper, then it's food and soft drinks, then it semiconductors and computers, then it retail outlets and media. While profits follow the business cycle, stocks anticipate the business cycle.
The implication here is that a sector's stocks should benefit or be hurt by the same macroeconomic factors, and this is borne out in stock movement. If you check where the most money is made each year in the stock market you will see that stocks move in packs - in industry groups - and those groups can be ranked in order of price performance daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, etc. 
2003 was a very good year with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rallying some 26%. But if you had really wanted to make good money, you would have owned Internet Information Providers which were up 143%, or Sporting Goods Stores which were up 130%, or Medical Practitioners which were up 127%. 
It now becomes obvious that to do well in the stock market, you have to be in the right industries or groups. The easy way to do this is simply track relative strength rankings on a rolling 6-month basis and concentrate all your funds in the top performing industries. You don't care if the market is rallying or declining, whether the dollar is rising or falling, whether interest rates are going up or down. All you care about is which stocks are leading the pack. And it's that simple.
***Speaking of "genesis," we take no credit for any original innovations or concepts. Simplespreading is simply a melding together of several of Wall Street's time-tested truisms. We borrow from the best and forget the rest.

I've heard options are dangerous and not a good investment. It's pure speculation.
You didn't mention whether you were referring to buying or selling options, so we'll assume you're talking about buying options. An option buyer can easily lose 100% of the investment and this strategy has been the cause of many big losses and many big law suits. Naked option selling has also resulted in huge losses and bigger lawsuits. A friend of mine lost $54 million during the crash of '87 by selling puts. However, option writing, which is what Simplespreading is, can be safer than plain old stock buying. It is so conservative that it is even approved for your IRAs, 401(k)s, and other retirement plans. 

Will you recommend a brokerage firm/money manager which we can set up an account with?
We do not recommend either brokerage firms or brokers/money managers/financial consultants. The object of The Simplespread Institute is to teach individual investors to manage their own money using the best deal Wall Street ever gave them. We hope we have done a good enough job whereby you not only can, but also want to do it yourself.
If you want someone else to manage your money, it is up to you. Whether a firm or a professional money manager meets your requirements to handle your account is also up to you. Remember that a brokerage firm makes money from transaction costs and a money manager gets a fee usually based on the amount of money managed. Both are in business to make a profit...which is good. Without profits we'd all be back in the caves searching for some dry kindling. Just make sure that their goals and your goals coincide to benefit you. You are the customer. And you are the boss. They exist to serve you.
We do not certify that anyone (public or private) is qualified to "Simplespread." If the investment community approaches you with our philosophy as the basis of their sales pitch, make sure they understand what they are doing and that you agree with the way they will handle your account. Again, it is your money; watch over it carefully.

If you recommend the strongest stocks and industries, does that carry over into mutual funds?
No.
(A) We don't like mutual funds. Period. We believe you can do much better on your own.
Additionally, the "strongest stocks'" theories rest on the business cycle. We will never ague that business success doesn't usually translate into stock success at one time or the other. We've just never found anybody or anything that had a very good track record predicting business/economic success consistently.
(B) However, the "strongest mutual fund" theories rest on...not much. Superior performance by a mutual fund can be the result of luck, skill, or a combination of both. Frequently, a mutual fund with a specialization (sector, allocation, value, dividend, foreign, growth, a star stockpicker, etc.) zooms to the top of the performance ratings based on the market's particular fad over the past year or two. Then, as time moves on, that fad dies and the fund sinks to the bottom of the heap.
So, to answer the question, no, mutual fund performance doesn't carry over from the "relative strength" stock philosophy. 


I was just referred by a friend to a website that advertises up to 25% a month writing calls. Is that legitimate?
As far as legitimacy goes, we can't say. However, during the big run up of 1998-2000, many websites sprang into life recommending the purchase of cheap BUT volatile internet stocks which did have hefty call premiums available to sell. All to often, though, those "hot" (flash-in-the-pan) stocks with the big option premiums failed to survive over the next 12 months, so the big option premiums didn't come close to making up for the stock loss.
Here at The Simplespread Institute we prefer the long-range perspective on the business of writing calls, and expect to see our clients work in stocks which will be here tomorrow. Usually, when the advertisements are too good to be true, they are too good to be true.

I know the market is fixed. I don't believe that fundamental or technical analysis can change the fact that insiders (?) unload overpriced stock on unsuspecting investors. Are you part of the fix?
Wow! Let's begin by defining "insiders" which our questioner did not do. Insiders can be company officers, or Wall Street firms, or private pools who invest heavily in a particular stock. We agree, from experience, that everyone involved in the investment business looks our for themselves. However, we believe (using his word) that technical analysis as proscribed by The Simplespread Strategy lays bare any (real or imagined) manipulation. Sure, it's easy to blame "them" for losses, but did you do everything to make sure the odds of profitability were on your side? There is no free lunch...anywhere. Not in the supermarket, not at the gas station, not in the doctor's office, not on the ball field, not in your own line of work. Nowhere. 
If you choose to invest in the stock market, you should know that everybody is there to make a profit, just like you are. Why else would anyone take the time or the risk?
We expect the recent bubble and subsequent bursting exposed much of what your anger is about. Many "insiders" have been fired, fined, and jailed, with more trials to continue for the foreseeable future. But the game will still be played, and please remember that if we don't "finance" our requirements for civilization, then progress has to wait on savings, and savings are slower than molasses in winter. You'll die before that new medical advancement is invented if the innovators can't get "financing." 
You just have to remember finance is a mental game that requires a mixture of imagination, inspiration, and trust. There will always be those who take advantage of their position (in every field of endeavor)...and there will always be the legal retribution that results from malfeasance. 
No, we are not part of what you call the "fix." What we are is one of the best ways to make sure you don't get taken to the cleaners through your own bad decisions.

What percentage of my money should I commit to the The Simplespread Strategy?
We are concerned only with your stock market money; not your bond money, real estate money, cash, etc. And we are concerned only with that part of your stock market money that you want to use to significantly increase your assets. This is your second job, your make-more-money-so-I-can-invest-it-elsewhere money. This is your meat & potatoes account. Essentially, Simplespreading should be the creator of assets that you then distribute into other classes of investments. And only you can determine how much of your money you want to use to make more money.

How will inflation/deflation affect your theories of Simplespreading?
Not at all. We expect the market to rise and fall throughout the rest of our lives...as it always has. The environments you mention, inflation or deflation, are simply "causes of the day" for trading to take place, like the body count in Vietnam, the money supply in the 1970s, interest rates, unemployment rates, the oil supply, or the new, new thing. Buyers think it is bullish; sellers think it is bearish. We don't know. We let the charts do the talking. None of us are smart enough to know.
Example: Let's say we know inflation will become rampant. Will stocks collapse? Well, maybe. And maybe not. It is the fighting of inflation (raising of interest rates) that hurts stocks. Maybe we will have hyperinflation. Maybe stocks will become the only way to stay ahead of the game. Or, maybe stocks will be the victim of inflation. It all depends on what monetary/political officials and investors do. Then their actions affect investors whose actions are borne out in the charts. And profit is made by selling at a higher price than buying. It's that simple, and it can't get any simpler than that.

If a stock I bought about 18 months ago is up 200% and I want to lock in my gain today but push the taxes into next year, can I buy puts without any taxable consequences?
As much as we'd like to help, we absolutely do not comment on tax questions for several reasons: (1) Tax law AND tax law interpretation change frequently (through legislation, court decisions, memorandums, etc.) and that is not our specialty. (2) Your understanding of your situation may not be totally correct, and therefore our comments might miss the mark of what you are really searching for. (3) We are not accountants, and are not qualified to advise anyone on their personal tax questions. We advise you to seek out the help of a good accountant or lawyer.

I'm very concerned about the health of the stock market. If we experience another downdraft, wouldn't I better off getting out of the stock market all together?
We agree with your concerns. As a matter of fact, we are always concerned about downdrafts. But the good thing about Simplespreading is that the cream always rises to the top. Even in market selloffs, panics, and extended bear markets, strong stocks usually put in a good performance. Gold stocks were a haven in 2001. REITs, auto parts, and some finance stocks provided shelter also during the recent (2000-2002) weakness. The problem of "getting out of the market all together" is the mental decision you have to make. If you convince yourself to get out, then you have to convince yourself that the worst is over and it's safe to get back in at some future time. Few people have such mental dexterity. We prefer to see the market as a series of rallies and declines. The declines are for buying; the rallies are for selling. We welcome both because they are profit opportunities.

You talk a lot about the "psychology" of the market, or of the investor. What exactly does that mean? 
There are two ways to approach investing: 1) Determine what something is worth; if it is "under valued," buy it and wait until it becomes "fully valued," or 2) Psyche out what investors are doing. Realize that it is their buying and selling that moves securities prices, then ascertain where their actions (rational and irrational) will push those prices.
Okay, that requires some explanation. Most of Wall Street is bent of finding "value." Why? Because it's the easiest concept to sell to investors. It's a story, and everybody loves a story. Anybody can make up a good story, from the company itself, to the analyst, to the broker/salesman. A good story is the best defense when things don't work out. "Management said the XL63 Gizmo would double the efficiency of earlier versions. The market for such an improvement can only be estimated to be in the billions. BUY!" 
The only problem here is that a good story is nothing more than a good story. Whether the story produces profits for the investor is determined by whether other investors buy the story. How do you monitor that? By watching the buying and selling patterns investors make as the news of the day/week/month comes and goes. 
Investors travel in herds. One of the first lessons I learned in the trading pits was that there were those who got caught up in the excitement (frenzy) of the moment, irrationally chasing prices as they spiraled one way or the other, then spent the next few hours scratching their heads over what they'd just done when the excitement died down. On the other hand, there where those who always kept their heads, coolly keeping rein on their moods and their actions. You can guess who survived and who bombed out. 
The bottom line of all this is that "value" means little when it comes to investing, although most of Wall Street adheres to it's siren song because of the ease of the explanation listed above. But time changes, and with it goes value. What's considered de rigueur today will change tomorrow. Transportation - the foot, the wheel, the horse, the cart, the carriage, the automobile, the train, the plane, the spaceship...all used for the same purpose, but certainly different in their value to the human race through time. 
The only consistent way to approach investing in the stock market is to monitor what other investors are doing, and buy today what they will later buy from you at higher prices tomorrow. You do that by studying the psychology of the moment. Learn that investors still run in herds. Learn that they go through periods of mania, then periods of panic.
When you learn why investors buy and where they buy and how they buy, then you can fashion a strategy around these behavioral characteristics. That's what The Simplespread Strategy does. It bases its rules on anticipated investor actions as evidenced by how investors acted in the past. The one thing that doesn't change over time is the way we human beings think. The hardware changes but the software remains the same.
Learn to understand investor behavior and you will always have a leg up on the competition. Psyche them out.

Please explain your use of "likelihood of profit" that turns up frequently in your material.
It is true that we use the term "likelihood" rather than something more definite. The stock market is fraught with risk of losing money. Stocks represent partial ownership in companies engaged in the business of providing you with products or services that you may or may not choose to use tomorrow. If it isn't a monopoly protected by government regulations, then every company listed is susceptible to immediate reversal of fortune and ultimate demise. Stock certificates can and do become worthless. Total loss of investment monies. Zap. Zippo. Zilch.
So, when we discuss investing, we do with a weary eye that has seen everything happen that could possibly happen. Few things surprise us. Companies are regularly adversely affected by suppliers cutting them off, employees walking out, customers changing their wants, government regulators putting them out of business, bankers calling in their loans, poor management, obsolesce, competitors taking their clients, and simply running out of good ideas.
The entrepreneur/business person is the hero of any era and the bulwark of any society. But the odds of a successful enterprise overcoming the above factors and remaining in business for the long term...well, history hasn't been kind to such assertions. 
Therefore, when we discuss stocks, we can, at best, use the term "likelihood" because there isn't anything for sure in this world. Going out of our way to alert you to this possibility is our way of being honest with you.

I can find stocks in the right industries which are ripe for buying but the option parameters you advise don't add up. Should I go ahead and forget the guidelines?
There are approximately 2500 stocks with options. That changes all the time, but let's call it somewhere just north of 2000. It is quite conceivable that at any one time, absolutely no stocks meet all the guidelines. Yes, that may be hard to believe. And what does that say to you? "Sit on the sidelines and wait for better opportunities."
Option pricing depends on a lot of factors, one of which is implied volatility which currently (March, 2004) is low. Historically speaking, volatility is back to where it was in the mid-1990s. Another factor mitigating against higher option pricing is rock-bottom interest rates. But this is all part of the game- and can change tomorrow. That's why it's so important to learn one strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. All today's market is telling you is that it's tougher to find "expensive," "meaty," "full-of-air" calls out there to sell. Wait. Shortly, things will pop up on your screen and you'll be ready to take advantage of them. They always do. Keep your powder dry.

 

 

Disclaimer

Simplespread.com (The Simplespread Strategy™) is an educational website, not a registered investment advisory service, and therefore does not give investment advice. Neither the information contained herein nor the opinions expressed throughout this website constitute a recommendation to purchase or sell any types of securities. References and illustrations using stocks and call options are for demonstration purposes only. Neither the author nor publisher have financial interest in any securities used for demonstration purposes. All information and data are taken from sources believed to be credible but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Both stocks and options involve considerable financial risk and are not suitable for many investors. Any funds placed at risk can lose real money. Consult your financial consultant, advisor, broker, banker, lawyer, accountant, psychologist, or other professional before committing funds to any investment. As in any learning experience, confirm the facts and theories on your own prior to embarking upon any at-risk investment program.